Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -225 UIC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -4.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -4.7 (+5.3) | 148.1 (-20.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.2 (+4.8) | 147.0 (-19.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -4.6 (+5.4) | 145.3 (-17.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -4.4 (+5.6) | 147.2 (-19.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2025 | UIC 63 – 58 MOST |
| Jan 8, 2025 | UIC 80 – 63 MOST |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MOST 74 – 57 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2023 | MOST 63 – 59 UIC |
| Dec 1, 2022 | MOST 66 – 51 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#160) | -0.9 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#146) | -0.60 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#148) | -0.35 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#171) | 0.468 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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