Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -333 UIC +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -8.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -7.3 (+9.7) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -8.5 (+8.5) | 131.1 (-0.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -7.1 (+9.9) | 133.6 (-2.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -7.1 (+9.9) | 134.6 (-3.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2025 | UIC 63 – 58 MOST |
| Jan 8, 2025 | UIC 80 – 63 MOST |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MOST 69 – 59 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2023 | MOST 63 – 59 UIC |
| Dec 1, 2022 | MOST 66 – 51 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#144) | -7.1 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#150) | -1.12 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#161) | -1.44 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.434 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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