Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LR -250 WIU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +25 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LR -3.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -2.9 (+22.1) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -3.6 (+21.4) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -2.7 (+22.3) | 137.2 (+1.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -3.2 (+21.8) | 137.4 (+1.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 WIU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LR 86 – 79 WIU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LR 75 – 61 WIU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | LR 62 – 51 WIU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | LR 63 – 60 WIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#195) | -5.2 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#226) | -0.28 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#227) | -0.30 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#235) | 0.498 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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