Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | LR -800 WIU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LR -13.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -9.6 (+4.4) | 136.0 (+0.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -10.6 (+3.4) | 135.3 (+0.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -10.7 (+3.3) | 137.0 (-1.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -11.3 (+2.7) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 WIU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LR 86 – 79 WIU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | LR 62 – 51 WIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LR 82 – 57 WIU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | LR 63 – 60 WIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#215) | -13.1 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#216) | -2.21 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#225) | -3.15 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#214) | 0.393 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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