Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FIU +450 FAU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -13.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -11.3 (+7.3) | 143.5 (+6.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -11.1 (+7.1) | 142.8 (+7.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -11.7 (+7.7) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -11.1 (+7.1) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | FAU 88 – 77 FIU |
| Dec 14, 2023 | FAU 94 – 60 FIU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | FAU 79 – 53 FIU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | FAU 84 – 76 FIU |
| Mar 4, 2022 | FAU 71 – 51 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 18-2 |
| Home | 11-7 | 17-0 |
| Away | 3-10 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#251) | 12.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#203) | 2.93 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#242) | 3.24 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#205) | 0.641 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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