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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
25 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coppin State
@
Georgetown
|
+29.4 | 132.2 | 100% | 53–83 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Maryland
|
+44.0 | 148.8 | 100% | 66–81 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Louisville
|
+17.7 | 152.7 | 95% | 76–78 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+18.0 | 147.6 | 95% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Memphis
|
+1.9 | 155.2 | 57% | 70–87 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
North Carolina A&T
|
+2.4 | 158.8 | 59% | 72–85 | ✓ |
Mercer
@
Georgia State
|
+1.0 | 159.6 | 54% | 71–68 | ✗ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
George Mason
|
+16.1 | 141.0 | 93% | 56–64 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Georgia Tech
|
+23.3 | 153.8 | 98% | 49–92 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
DePaul
|
+16.2 | 147.7 | 93% | 65–84 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Syracuse
|
+11.4 | 158.2 | 85% | 63–75 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Davidson
|
+16.3 | 149.2 | 93% | 64–86 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Colorado State
|
+0.1 | 160.1 | 50% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Abilene Christian
@
Texas A&M
|
+21.8 | 135.2 | 98% | 54–92 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
UCLA
|
-4.5 | 145.1 | 34% | 62–65 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Wyoming
|
-5.1 | 133.9 | 32% | 63–66 | ✗ |
Fairfield
@
Columbia
|
+16.4 | 154.7 | 93% | 72–85 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Boston College
|
+10.3 | 152.8 | 82% | 70–78 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Hampton
|
+6.6 | 143.0 | 73% | 67–83 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
San José State
|
-7.5 | 148.5 | 25% | 73–71 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
McNeese
|
+21.6 | 141.6 | 98% | 61–86 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
San Diego State
|
+2.9 | 142.3 | 60% | 67–66 | ✗ |
Florida Gulf Coast
@
Richmond
|
-1.0 | 138.9 | 46% | 75–57 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
St. John's
|
+25.0 | 163.1 | 99% | 76–97 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
San Diego
|
-10.9 | 147.6 | 16% | 68–55 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.