They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–21 on winners spread MAE 8.7 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wichita State @ Memphis +16.5 159.0 93% 53–61 ✓
Bryant @ New Hampshire -14.2 149.2 10% 95–76 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +11.6 114.3 85% 64–68 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State -4.6 147.8 34% 92–79 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Charleston +2.8 154.2 60% 85–83 ✗
Campbell @ Stony Brook -3.5 136.1 38% 79–54 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Towson +10.3 143.5 83% 67–83 ✓
Delaware @ Hofstra +4.0 143.4 64% 68–93 ✓
Drexel @ Northeastern +2.8 134.3 60% 61–70 ✓
Monmouth @ Elon +12.8 137.1 88% 71–83 ✓
North Florida @ Queens University +5.9 168.9 71% 90–81 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -2.8 143.9 40% 64–74 ✗
Jacksonville @ West Georgia -8.1 139.2 23% 79–62 ✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky +14.5 157.7 91% 67–66 ✗
Samford @ Chattanooga -0.5 166.1 48% 73–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena +4.9 139.2 67% 68–82 ✓
Merrimack @ Saint Peter's +0.8 115.9 53% 48–37 ✗
Iona @ Rider +0.5 134.5 52% 73–67 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Canisius -5.0 153.4 32% 93–84 ✓
Fairfield @ Manhattan +8.3 156.9 77% 87–84 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +3.9 146.1 64% 67–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ Central Arkansas +0.0 136.5 50% 73–71 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston -2.2 158.4 42% 77–75 ✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian +6.1 124.2 71% 56–67 ✓
Seattle U @ UT Arlington -1.1 150.5 46% 56–65 ✗
South Dakota @ North Dakota +1.7 180.4 56% 102–93 ✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City -4.2 141.6 35% 65–64 ✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts +4.5 155.1 66% 70–68 ✗
St. Thomas @ Omaha -3.2 157.7 38% 78–89 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Southern Utah -7.0 152.2 26% 74–59 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State +3.4 154.9 62% 77–89 ✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +8.5 137.2 78% 76–82 ✓
Little Rock @ Western Illinois -4.7 128.5 33% 62–51 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood -2.1 141.6 42% 68–72 ✗
Maryland @ Illinois +8.3 157.3 78% 91–70 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -2.7 161.3 40% 76–77 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +3.6 148.5 63% 70–61 ✗
App State @ Arkansas State +5.9 133.9 70% 55–65 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis +0.2 134.8 51% 66–68 ✓
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's +9.3 136.9 80% 51–71 ✓
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois -1.6 133.7 44% 73–66 ✓
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State +7.4 147.9 75% 69–56 ✗
Jacksonville State @ UTEP +4.2 142.7 65% 73–66 ✗
Pepperdine @ Oregon State +16.3 144.9 93% 63–83 ✓
Idaho State @ Sacramento State -7.8 126.5 24% 71–75 ✗
Weber State @ Portland State +5.6 143.5 69% 56–74 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +11.6 135.0 85% 63–77 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton -3.5 140.7 37% 71–68 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside -8.4 140.4 22% 80–84 ✗
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge +18.0 148.6 95% 76–86 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +1.7 149.2 56% 82–92 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific -4.6 140.8 34% 73–68 ✓
Washington State @ Santa Clara +6.3 160.5 72% 65–93 ✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist +0.9 143.0 53% 74–69 ✗
Toledo @ Bowling Green -0.1 161.0 50% 84–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.