The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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91–34 on winners spread MAE 8.4 125 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Villanova @ Marquette +8.3 149.2 78% 74–87 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis -0.0 136.3 50% 64–74 ✗
Wagner @ Mercyhurst +2.5 116.5 59% 66–71 ✓
Chicago State @ Stonehill +12.1 132.4 86% 73–75 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne -7.1 137.3 26% 93–70 ✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky -3.2 138.8 39% 79–59 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio +1.3 140.8 55% 59–61 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Dayton +5.1 147.1 68% 72–77 ✓
Michigan @ Purdue +2.9 151.7 60% 64–91 ✓
Penn State @ Iowa +1.2 172.3 55% 75–76 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +8.5 130.1 78% 61–75 ✓
UCLA @ Washington -6.7 137.4 27% 65–60 ✓
SMU @ NC State -3.7 151.9 37% 63–57 ✓
Campbell @ Hofstra +6.2 125.4 71% 69–67 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook -0.1 150.6 50% 74–89 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse -10.2 157.5 18% 77–73 ✓
Howard @ Norfolk State +11.5 156.0 85% 75–92 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +1.8 134.2 56% 68–78 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina -6.0 141.6 29% 65–60 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +5.1 146.5 68% 55–64 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State -4.5 162.9 34% 74–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Boston University +0.3 129.7 51% 82–85 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +3.6 143.3 63% 80–63 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +13.3 146.9 89% 50–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ Queens University +0.7 141.6 53% 87–77 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ VMI -7.6 137.9 24% 60–57 ✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel +2.9 136.4 60% 80–78 ✗
Marist @ Canisius -7.3 136.9 25% 70–47 ✓
Siena @ Iona +0.9 138.7 53% 68–72 ✓
Michigan State @ Rutgers -7.2 155.0 26% 81–74 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton +16.6 134.0 93% 54–79 ✓
Iowa State @ Arizona State -7.4 145.5 25% 76–61 ✓
Winthrop @ High Point +9.9 167.7 82% 62–84 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle -1.1 154.5 46% 64–70 ✗
Saint Louis @ George Washington +2.9 146.5 61% 61–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Bradley +9.8 146.0 81% 57–61 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +3.3 143.0 62% 70–65 ✗
Cornell @ Princeton +2.6 161.5 59% 85–76 ✗
Harvard @ Yale +17.4 146.1 94% 55–84 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania -4.8 151.0 33% 78–93 ✗
Dartmouth @ Brown +6.9 147.5 74% 84–83 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +17.3 150.8 94% 80–97 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +15.1 155.5 92% 69–83 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris +2.3 137.3 58% 71–73 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -6.5 160.7 28% 91–80 ✓
Delaware @ Drexel +5.0 148.9 67% 54–67 ✓
Monmouth @ William & Mary +9.9 158.8 81% 73–78 ✓
North Florida @ West Georgia -6.0 166.7 29% 72–92 ✗
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -16.3 143.1 7% 68–55 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Akron +6.3 160.6 72% 75–102 ✓
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan +6.8 153.8 73% 77–90 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +13.1 139.2 88% 64–75 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Niagara +1.0 148.7 54% 86–77 ✗
Boston College @ North Carolina +22.4 154.6 98% 96–102 ✓
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -2.0 171.2 43% 69–74 ✗
Texas A&M @ Texas +0.1 139.8 51% 69–70 ✓
Tulane @ Rice +1.3 138.8 55% 82–71 ✗
New Mexico @ UNLV -3.7 151.0 37% 75–73 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +14.9 159.1 91% 54–80 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona +18.1 151.8 95% 63–78 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC +8.6 154.3 78% 89–85 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine +1.7 150.8 56% 81–76 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +3.5 148.2 62% 80–72 ✗
Marshall @ Georgia Southern -3.2 151.8 38% 71–67 ✓
App State @ UL Monroe -12.1 127.1 14% 66–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +8.4 151.3 78% 65–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +14.6 144.9 91% 66–81 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +9.9 145.3 82% 59–89 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern -2.2 156.0 42% 69–61 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston +0.8 160.3 53% 75–66 ✗
Oregon @ Minnesota -6.9 138.9 27% 69–77 ✗
TCU @ UCF +2.1 147.1 58% 58–85 ✓
Temple @ UTSA -2.9 162.3 40% 79–88 ✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso +9.0 138.3 79% 78–68 ✗
Drake @ Missouri State -9.1 123.8 20% 69–62 ✓
Belmont @ Murray State +5.5 157.1 69% 95–77 ✗
Utah State @ Air Force -15.4 142.0 8% 87–58 ✓
Colgate @ American University +0.6 135.8 52% 77–81 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +11.8 137.3 86% 62–68 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State -1.5 129.3 45% 87–81 ✓
DePaul @ Butler +7.1 150.2 74% 69–86 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia State -6.3 147.7 28% 86–79 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky -2.4 146.6 41% 77–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian -0.2 145.0 49% 79–76 ✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State +5.9 149.4 70% 71–63 ✗
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's +3.8 155.5 64% 74–64 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama State +8.5 162.9 78% 63–66 ✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.6 150.2 34% 73–66 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +9.3 155.4 80% 64–80 ✓
Duke @ Wake Forest -16.7 129.7 6% 63–56 ✓
Radford @ Presbyterian +0.2 137.8 51% 82–69 ✗
Baylor @ Utah -4.1 151.7 36% 76–61 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State +0.6 137.4 52% 81–86 ✓
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.9 155.4 74% 57–61 ✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +7.1 140.8 74% 63–86 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -1.1 151.2 46% 79–74 ✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois -7.5 146.8 25% 66–76 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +5.1 145.3 68% 89–85 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois -4.1 135.3 35% 72–51 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +5.1 132.5 68% 54–65 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois +0.2 141.6 51% 64–60 ✗
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central -2.0 146.0 43% 77–82 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State +3.0 138.7 61% 65–64 ✗
Little Rock @ Lindenwood -3.0 131.7 39% 78–46 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia Tech -9.9 137.1 19% 72–57 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +2.0 141.6 57% 59–76 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington -3.8 158.5 37% 67–62 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly +10.0 160.1 82% 69–78 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +16.5 162.7 93% 82–87 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M -5.9 151.2 30% 82–78 ✓
McNeese @ UT Rio Grande Valley -7.8 145.2 24% 93–63 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri +1.6 146.8 56% 75–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State -5.5 137.1 31% 60–73 ✗
Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin +2.2 123.4 58% 57–54 ✗
Davidson @ Richmond -3.2 140.4 39% 72–66 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans -1.3 145.2 45% 86–76 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +2.5 129.7 59% 55–65 ✓
Santa Clara @ Oregon State +4.0 151.8 64% 69–83 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +13.0 175.6 88% 71–90 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +5.8 154.7 70% 61–77 ✓
Liberty @ Florida International -8.0 134.8 23% 82–59 ✓
Houston @ Kansas -3.4 125.6 38% 92–86 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia -0.9 125.8 47% 74–59 ✓
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -15.8 157.2 8% 83–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +1.3 144.4 55% 69–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.