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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–11 on winners spread MAE 9.9 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Miami -24.5 153.1 1% 97–60 ✓
Florida @ Georgia -6.8 145.7 27% 83–88 ✗
Providence @ Marquette +11.9 145.7 86% 52–82 ✓
Army @ Lafayette +3.5 142.6 63% 65–81 ✓
Baylor @ Cincinnati -0.7 140.2 47% 67–69 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh +11.8 147.6 86% 73–67 ✗
VCU @ Richmond -15.7 135.9 8% 78–60 ✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson +2.3 144.6 58% 57–56 ✗
Northwestern @ Minnesota -1.7 131.9 44% 75–63 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +11.2 144.8 85% 66–83 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -3.2 137.0 38% 59–61 ✗
Toledo @ Kent State +8.5 145.7 78% 65–105 ✓
Ohio @ Western Michigan -5.8 154.1 30% 73–82 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +17.3 151.5 94% 58–87 ✓
Buffalo @ Central Michigan +16.0 148.8 93% 69–73 ✓
Akron @ Ball State -7.0 159.9 26% 87–82 ✓
James Madison @ UL Monroe -10.2 140.2 18% 85–79 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -13.3 151.3 11% 68–74 ✗
Indiana State @ Murray State +7.1 155.8 74% 75–85 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois -0.6 146.9 48% 79–88 ✗
Troy @ Texas State -2.2 142.2 42% 74–69 ✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois +0.0 138.1 50% 81–86 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU -10.5 134.0 17% 65–59 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +9.0 171.6 79% 73–111 ✓
Washington @ Wisconsin +16.0 151.3 93% 62–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Missouri +13.0 145.6 88% 71–101 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia Tech -11.6 143.8 15% 71–66 ✓
TCU @ West Virginia +7.6 124.5 75% 55–73 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -13.2 135.2 11% 77–55 ✓
Iowa @ Illinois +12.3 173.7 87% 61–81 ✓
UNLV @ San José State -2.2 139.5 42% 77–71 ✓
Wyoming @ Nevada +11.6 131.4 85% 61–84 ✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State +2.4 143.1 59% 65–73 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -5.4 162.4 31% 95–76 ✓
Boston University @ Lehigh +3.7 131.0 63% 79–68 ✗
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +11.2 147.6 85% 58–59 ✓
Michigan State @ Maryland +4.2 149.1 65% 58–55 ✗
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +6.0 150.4 71% 64–59 ✗
Duquesne @ La Salle -1.5 138.5 45% 67–62 ✓
Georgetown @ UConn +10.0 140.3 82% 79–93 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.