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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–2 on winners
spread MAE 7.2
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UC Irvine
@
North Dakota State
|
+2.6 | 136.6 | 59% | 74–73 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
Pacific
|
+11.8 | 139.0 | 86% | 82–95 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Cal Poly
|
-0.1 | 166.8 | 50% | 83–80 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
Nebraska
|
+31.8 | 147.6 | 100% | 55–78 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
UTEP
|
+4.1 | 125.7 | 65% | 72–71 | ✗ |
New Haven
@
Fordham
|
+11.6 | 119.9 | 85% | 47–65 | ✓ |
West Georgia
@
Georgia
|
+34.9 | 171.4 | 100% | 74–103 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Towson
|
+10.3 | 139.0 | 83% | 47–72 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Butler
|
+30.7 | 149.8 | 100% | 52–101 | ✓ |
Denver
@
Tulsa
|
+20.0 | 173.7 | 97% | 85–90 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
UTSA
|
-12.3 | 137.1 | 13% | 71–68 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
South Carolina
|
+29.8 | 146.2 | 100% | 70–95 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Western Illinois
|
-5.3 | 139.1 | 31% | 66–61 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Texas Southern
|
-6.6 | 147.7 | 28% | 75–68 | ✓ |
Portland
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+8.0 | 156.7 | 77% | 61–79 | ✓ |
American University
@
Virginia
|
+22.9 | 160.7 | 98% | 51–95 | ✓ |
Siena
@
Indiana
|
+19.3 | 138.1 | 96% | 60–81 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Georgetown
|
+30.2 | 153.3 | 100% | 67–97 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.