And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–42 on winners spread MAE 9.1 123 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
George Mason @ George Washington +4.2 150.1 65% 53–72 ✓
Cornell @ Princeton -1.8 166.3 44% 89–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Sacred Heart -1.5 149.9 45% 71–78 ✗
Yale @ Dartmouth -9.2 159.6 20% 83–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena +4.7 143.8 67% 74–62 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider -4.3 139.3 35% 65–55 ✓
Iona @ Canisius -7.3 139.5 25% 69–63 ✓
Brown @ Harvard +9.9 130.3 82% 53–56 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania +2.8 152.1 60% 67–76 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin -4.3 151.0 35% 71–92 ✗
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago -25.4 158.8 1% 86–59 ✓
Massachusetts @ Akron +14.3 169.8 90% 92–99 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) +14.1 168.0 90% 74–90 ✓
UNLV @ Boise State +12.3 161.9 87% 86–83 ✗
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T -1.3 143.9 45% 70–71 ✗
Clemson @ Duke +13.2 135.4 89% 54–67 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +6.3 128.0 72% 70–66 ✗
TCU @ Oklahoma State -0.2 157.8 49% 95–92 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +9.3 150.2 80% 74–89 ✓
California @ Boston College -4.4 137.4 35% 86–75 ✓
Navy @ Colgate +0.6 142.4 52% 84–80 ✗
Samford @ East Tennessee State +9.0 148.3 79% 82–72 ✗
UCLA @ Michigan +18.3 156.3 95% 56–86 ✓
Kansas @ Iowa State +5.5 146.2 69% 56–74 ✓
Northwestern @ Nebraska +13.1 143.8 88% 49–68 ✓
St. John's @ Providence -6.8 180.4 27% 79–69 ✓
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt +9.8 174.2 81% 69–82 ✓
Bucknell @ Boston University +7.6 148.7 75% 69–82 ✓
Long Island University @ New Haven -7.3 131.5 25% 52–55 ✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne +9.0 149.0 79% 63–81 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire -2.8 142.5 40% 85–63 ✓
Furman @ VMI -13.4 145.5 11% 90–72 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel -12.6 151.5 13% 70–54 ✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +14.3 144.1 90% 65–79 ✓
East Carolina @ Rice +5.6 147.6 69% 85–75 ✗
Army @ American University +10.3 150.0 83% 63–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +6.8 133.8 73% 58–57 ✗
High Point @ Gardner-Webb -27.6 164.0 1% 112–87 ✓
Florida State @ Virginia Tech +8.1 159.9 77% 92–69 ✗
SMU @ Syracuse -3.1 162.2 39% 78–79 ✗
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -7.3 152.6 25% 83–66 ✓
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan +8.1 147.3 77% 76–62 ✗
Kent State @ Ball State -8.5 146.8 22% 75–68 ✓
Wagner @ Stonehill +1.1 136.4 54% 68–57 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Saint Francis -4.8 140.0 33% 94–79 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.8 141.0 47% 63–57 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont +13.0 137.4 88% 63–90 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary +8.8 170.6 79% 81–78 ✗
West Georgia @ Central Arkansas +13.5 153.9 89% 62–79 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.0 154.1 84% 76–78 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -7.7 139.2 24% 73–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International +5.7 145.2 70% 64–77 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +2.3 168.1 58% 80–90 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton -4.1 145.1 35% 80–69 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +9.2 152.3 80% 83–92 ✓
Penn State @ Oregon +4.6 150.7 66% 72–83 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +3.4 148.6 62% 75–82 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier +3.5 158.5 63% 88–96 ✓
NJIT @ Maine -0.3 130.6 49% 67–58 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +13.5 151.2 89% 84–95 ✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +7.2 152.6 74% 92–88 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +12.1 143.2 86% 78–73 ✗
Delaware @ Missouri State +8.2 137.9 77% 76–67 ✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State -1.4 149.0 45% 60–80 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +5.0 146.8 68% 55–78 ✓
Georgia @ Oklahoma -3.0 174.4 39% 78–94 ✗
Tennessee State @ Morehead State -0.8 156.4 47% 86–94 ✗
Kansas State @ Houston +20.7 148.4 97% 64–78 ✓
Colorado @ BYU +14.9 168.0 91% 86–90 ✓
Louisville @ Baylor -9.0 166.4 21% 82–71 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +2.1 142.9 58% 68–79 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +1.1 162.1 54% 78–73 ✗
Stanford @ Wake Forest +4.2 154.1 65% 63–68 ✓
Miami @ NC State +5.8 161.9 70% 77–76 ✗
UAlbany @ Binghamton -4.8 143.2 33% 77–74 ✓
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington +2.4 140.0 59% 66–70 ✓
App State @ James Madison -0.4 134.7 49% 58–69 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +1.5 150.8 55% 65–77 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +5.6 157.4 69% 56–63 ✓
Lipscomb @ Queens University +0.9 169.3 53% 81–87 ✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian -0.5 142.9 48% 59–73 ✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +11.3 132.1 85% 58–75 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State +1.3 157.2 55% 61–79 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State -7.7 151.1 24% 55–57 ✗
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.9 133.2 60% 63–76 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +1.6 134.2 56% 66–69 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Houston Christian -2.1 154.5 43% 60–61 ✗
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville -0.2 122.1 49% 81–76 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood +2.9 156.2 60% 73–61 ✗
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois +1.8 134.6 56% 72–78 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard +11.1 130.1 84% 53–79 ✓
Purdue @ Iowa -0.9 143.5 47% 78–57 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +0.7 146.3 53% 78–69 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine -5.6 141.3 30% 89–90 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M +17.3 139.1 94% 65–72 ✓
Grand Canyon @ San José State -10.1 138.2 18% 94–79 ✓
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +12.1 149.2 87% 58–56 ✗
Air Force @ Fresno State +19.4 134.7 96% 63–93 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green +5.1 151.3 68% 70–80 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +2.8 145.2 60% 46–88 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro -3.1 159.2 39% 89–99 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga -0.5 153.3 48% 81–76 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +7.0 152.8 74% 54–71 ✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word +2.8 152.0 60% 91–83 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho +5.2 148.1 68% 69–99 ✓
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +1.6 164.7 56% 66–84 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana +0.7 142.4 53% 82–74 ✗
Sam Houston @ Kennesaw State -2.1 168.6 42% 83–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State +0.6 138.4 52% 79–70 ✗
Grambling @ Texas Southern -0.7 144.6 47% 79–82 ✗
Southern @ Prairie View A&M -0.3 166.8 49% 87–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley -1.5 141.2 45% 66–57 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +11.0 156.3 84% 70–90 ✓
VCU @ Richmond -5.8 159.8 30% 78–67 ✓
West Virginia @ UCF +3.1 143.1 61% 74–67 ✗
Brown @ Dartmouth +6.5 142.5 72% 79–76 ✗
Columbia @ Princeton +0.0 141.0 50% 75–65 ✗
Cornell @ Pennsylvania +1.1 178.2 54% 76–82 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -12.6 143.7 13% 97–54 ✓
LSU @ Tennessee +11.0 150.2 84% 63–73 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arizona +9.9 156.4 82% 78–75 ✗
Yale @ Harvard -4.5 145.6 34% 76–75 ✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss +5.0 145.3 68% 90–78 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.