And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–18 on winners spread MAE 8.0 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNLV @ Fresno State -7.6 144.1 21% 52–51 ✓
Belmont @ Southern Illinois +0.6 154.7 52% 73–68 ✗
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +2.7 146.2 64% 73–75 ✓
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +16.6 134.8 89% 60–85 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +7.0 139.3 81% 81–70 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +6.4 143.1 77% 71–78 ✓
Akron @ Central Michigan -4.2 155.1 31% 85–82 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -8.0 140.6 15% 82–70 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.2 155.5 74% 79–65 ✗
Kentucky @ Texas +0.1 159.0 52% 78–82 ✓
TCU @ Arizona State +4.8 138.3 64% 74–70 ✗
Princeton @ Yale +11.5 145.4 85% 57–84 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana State +3.1 139.9 64% 69–74 ✓
Marshall @ Louisiana -4.4 141.0 36% 68–79 ✗
Troy @ Arkansas State +5.2 139.7 70% 71–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside +1.5 141.4 62% 69–81 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge +10.0 158.9 84% 85–89 ✓
Seattle U @ Tarleton State -6.8 132.1 28% 64–67 ✗
Omaha @ St. Thomas +7.8 157.6 80% 84–95 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +2.7 150.3 65% 87–77 ✗
South Carolina @ Florida +16.8 143.0 90% 67–88 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -6.7 141.3 25% 70–68 ✓
Kansas State @ BYU +5.6 149.0 72% 65–80 ✓
Weber State @ Montana +10.4 147.9 85% 58–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +11.0 144.1 86% 83–86 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -1.3 135.3 45% 76–69 ✓
Florida International @ New Mexico State +6.9 136.0 77% 48–76 ✓
Kansas @ Utah -4.0 145.2 40% 67–74 ✗
Boise State @ San Diego State +2.2 130.8 63% 47–64 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland -6.3 144.1 29% 78–89 ✗
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +26.0 157.5 91% 55–107 ✓
San Francisco @ San Diego -12.5 145.5 15% 84–61 ✓
Washington State @ Saint Mary's +14.7 136.6 88% 56–77 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -5.7 138.0 30% 66–49 ✓
Memphis @ Wichita State -5.7 145.0 35% 79–84 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Temple -0.0 162.8 48% 83–81 ✓
Siena @ Sacred Heart +0.5 148.5 53% 80–73 ✗
Michigan @ Ohio State +3.5 149.1 60% 86–83 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius -7.7 137.9 23% 73–66 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +7.6 127.4 76% 61–59 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +4.1 141.7 65% 68–60 ✗
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -5.8 165.7 27% 94–91 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac +6.6 144.5 75% 74–79 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield -3.1 147.7 35% 80–67 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +3.0 127.9 59% 61–60 ✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's +2.7 129.6 60% 65–66 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +7.3 140.8 81% 73–79 ✓
Missouri State @ UIC +6.3 143.7 78% 58–63 ✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern +1.0 144.3 52% 68–64 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +9.9 136.1 82% 83–93 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -6.9 148.4 34% 68–79 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +7.9 143.7 77% 70–92 ✓
South Florida @ UAB +8.8 158.3 82% 78–85 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico +5.6 154.3 77% 79–82 ✓
Iowa @ Maryland +14.0 158.9 86% 75–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.