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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–9 on winners spread MAE 9.7 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Miami -23.2 150.3 13% 97–60 ✓
Florida @ Georgia -4.1 146.0 41% 83–88 ✗
Providence @ Marquette +13.3 145.0 87% 52–82 ✓
Army @ Lafayette +2.0 141.2 65% 65–81 ✓
Baylor @ Cincinnati +1.1 140.3 50% 67–69 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh +11.8 146.1 83% 73–67 ✗
VCU @ Richmond -13.7 137.3 13% 78–60 ✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson +2.2 142.6 60% 57–56 ✗
Northwestern @ Minnesota -0.7 135.4 44% 75–63 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +9.8 147.3 83% 66–83 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -2.1 136.5 43% 59–61 ✗
Toledo @ Kent State +5.8 147.1 77% 65–105 ✓
Ohio @ Western Michigan -4.1 153.3 37% 73–82 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +13.4 152.4 85% 58–87 ✓
Buffalo @ Central Michigan +13.6 148.6 87% 69–73 ✓
Akron @ Ball State -5.1 156.7 27% 87–82 ✓
James Madison @ UL Monroe -10.5 142.8 17% 85–79 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -10.8 149.8 18% 68–74 ✗
Indiana State @ Murray State +6.7 149.9 76% 75–85 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +0.1 146.2 46% 79–88 ✓
Troy @ Texas State -1.9 138.6 42% 74–69 ✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois +0.2 142.7 44% 81–86 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU -6.3 137.3 21% 65–59 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +8.8 168.2 78% 73–111 ✓
Washington @ Wisconsin +15.0 154.7 89% 62–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Missouri +13.7 149.0 88% 71–101 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia Tech -10.7 141.8 14% 71–66 ✓
TCU @ West Virginia +5.5 132.2 68% 55–73 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -14.4 134.8 13% 77–55 ✓
Iowa @ Illinois +12.8 168.3 84% 61–81 ✓
UNLV @ San José State -3.1 140.0 35% 77–71 ✓
Wyoming @ Nevada +13.2 134.1 88% 61–84 ✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State +1.6 144.3 59% 65–73 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -3.2 160.9 32% 95–76 ✓
Boston University @ Lehigh +2.3 129.9 55% 79–68 ✗
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +10.6 144.0 84% 58–59 ✓
Michigan State @ Maryland +5.2 149.3 71% 58–55 ✗
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +5.6 150.0 72% 64–59 ✗
Duquesne @ La Salle -1.8 139.1 37% 67–62 ✓
Georgetown @ UConn +11.1 141.6 82% 79–93 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.