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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–12 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.4 | 150.8 | 72% | 63–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 141.5 | 86% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.1 | 158.6 | 89% | 81–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 128.1 | 67% | 68–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.9 | 139.8 | 87% | 54–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 138.6 | 26% | 75–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 133.1 | 26% | 85–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 132.4 | 53% | 66–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 147.7 | 59% | 60–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.7 | 124.6 | 26% | 64–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 133.7 | 54% | 55–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 135.8 | 51% | 82–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 142.8 | 49% | 70–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.7 | 150.9 | 86% | 75–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 141.0 | 85% | 62–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.5 | 138.6 | 85% | 68–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 144.9 | 83% | 62–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 153.4 | 41% | 77–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 152.5 | 49% | 101–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.0 | 141.7 | 36% | 88–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 148.6 | 55% | 77–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.9 | 146.2 | 75% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 130.5 | 82% | 38–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 135.2 | 60% | 62–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 139.0 | 80% | 60–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 147.3 | 75% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.0 | 141.9 | 48% | 96–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.2 | 136.0 | 78% | 69–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 147.6 | 68% | 66–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 127.0 | 32% | 69–41 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 131.7 | 58% | 72–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 143.9 | 59% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 142.5 | 76% | 76–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.7 | 139.6 | 88% | 84–95 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.