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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–10 on winners spread MAE 11.2 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Middle Tennessee @ Abilene Christian — — — 79–56 —
Vermont @ Merrimack — — — 51–65 —
Montana State @ Wichita State +13.1 150.0 84% 69–89 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Ohio +17.6 149.8 90% 76–82 ✓
Florida State @ Rice -0.1 139.0 47% 73–65 ✓
Baylor @ Arkansas +8.0 138.8 82% 72–67 ✗
Northwestern @ Dayton +6.7 136.3 67% 66–71 ✓
New Hampshire @ UConn +28.2 149.8 90% 53–92 ✓
Sam Houston @ Tarleton State +1.9 148.2 38% 91–62 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Grand Canyon +14.0 153.5 83% 72–74 ✓
Youngstown State @ Chicago State — — — 80–60 —
Liberty @ Seattle U +2.0 149.8 48% 66–64 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Nebraska +22.0 145.3 89% 58–63 ✓
Kennesaw State @ California Baptist — — — 84–88 —
Florida International @ Southern Utah — — — 75–80 —
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech — — — 75–63 —
Auburn @ Houston +1.4 136.4 54% 74–69 ✗
Pepperdine @ UC San Diego +5.0 136.2 72% 76–94 ✓
Washington @ Nevada +12.4 149.5 81% 53–63 ✓
Boise State @ San Francisco +1.7 141.6 41% 73–84 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Indiana +22.0 146.4 89% 55–90 ✓
App State @ Wisconsin +26.4 140.6 90% 56–87 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Vanderbilt +30.1 146.0 91% 76–85 ✓
Niagara @ Detroit Mercy +7.3 147.2 73% 78–84 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia Tech +4.6 145.2 59% 105–93 ✗
Michigan @ Wake Forest -10.3 136.0 21% 70–72 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Drake — — — 51–66 —
Saint Francis @ Campbell +12.1 131.2 84% 65–64 ✗
Harvard @ American University +3.2 135.3 52% 55–67 ✓
Maine @ Brown +15.1 141.5 87% 69–67 ✗
Princeton @ Northeastern +14.1 146.4 86% 79–76 ✗
UC Irvine @ Northern Iowa +7.2 136.8 63% 80–60 ✗
Binghamton @ Miami +27.4 156.4 90% 64–88 ✓
St. Thomas @ Oklahoma State +4.0 149.2 47% 71–80 ✓
SE Louisiana @ UAB — — — 72–82 —
Texas Southern @ Georgia +8.8 144.3 76% 64–92 ✓
Tennessee State @ Wyoming — — — 66–81 —
Arizona State @ Gonzaga +12.2 135.6 79% 80–88 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Creighton +19.5 157.2 89% 70–96 ✓
Alabama State @ LSU +23.1 150.1 89% 61–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.