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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–4 on winners spread MAE 12.4 32 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Pennsylvania	+12.5	140.5	87%	84–85	✓
Stony Brook @ Central Michigan	+14.8	148.3	88%	73–72	✗
Charleston Southern @ North Florida	+13.1	145.3	87%	66–90	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Wake Forest	—	—	—	64–80	—
Southern Miss @ UAB	-0.5	142.2	44%	84–98	✗
Jacksonville @ Florida	—	—	—	60–81	—
Bucknell @ Southern Indiana	+3.6	148.6	58%	75–69	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Loyola Chicago	—	—	—	65–87	—
Milwaukee @ Northern Iowa	—	—	—	68–87	—
Prairie View A&M @ DePaul	—	—	—	59–92	—
Montana State @ Wisconsin	—	—	—	67–79	—
Southern @ Iowa	+14.1	149.6	85%	74–89	✓
Omaha @ Stetson	—	—	—	79–76	—
Niagara @ Michigan State	—	—	—	60–96	—
Florida A&M @ SMU	+22.2	152.2	90%	73–102	✓
Illinois State @ North Dakota State	—	—	—	77–68	—
Jacksonville State @ Air Force	—	—	—	67–73	—
Chattanooga @ Saint Mary's	+9.7	141.2	79%	74–86	✓
Idaho State @ USC	+10.9	134.6	79%	69–75	✓
Cal Poly @ California	+9.4	149.1	75%	73–91	✓
UC Davis @ Idaho	—	—	—	79–75	—
Central Arkansas @ Utah	+20.1	147.8	89%	63–98	✓
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina Central	+3.3	141.8	68%	88–82	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Stanford	+11.9	148.2	82%	53–80	✓
Army @ Duke	+17.4	148.7	87%	58–100	✓
Temple @ Monmouth	-2.6	142.1	43%	103–74	✓
Saint Peter's @ UMass Lowell	—	—	—	74–81	—
Samford @ Cornell	—	—	—	86–88	—
IU Indianapolis @ Xavier	—	—	—	80–94	—
UMBC @ Penn State	—	—	—	54–103	—
Boston College @ VCU	+2.2	140.6	57%	55–80	✓
Austin Peay @ Butler	—	—	—	68–66	—

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.