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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–9 on winners spread MAE 10.6 40 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Middle Tennessee @ Abilene Christian	—	—	—	79–56	—
Vermont @ Merrimack	—	—	—	51–65	—
Montana State @ Wichita State	+10.5	148.8	83%	69–89	✓
UNC Asheville @ Ohio	+14.4	149.2	89%	76–82	✓
Florida State @ Rice	-0.7	142.2	47%	73–65	✓
Baylor @ Arkansas	+8.1	141.8	78%	72–67	✗
Northwestern @ Dayton	+4.4	140.4	65%	66–71	✓
New Hampshire @ UConn	+21.8	150.2	90%	53–92	✓
Sam Houston @ Tarleton State	-0.9	147.7	55%	91–62	✓
Western Kentucky @ Grand Canyon	+10.6	153.0	81%	72–74	✓
Youngstown State @ Chicago State	—	—	—	80–60	—
Liberty @ Seattle U	+0.6	149.1	48%	66–64	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Nebraska	+17.8	144.4	89%	58–63	✓
Kennesaw State @ California Baptist	—	—	—	84–88	—
Florida International @ Southern Utah	—	—	—	75–80	—
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech	—	—	—	75–63	—
Auburn @ Houston	+0.9	142.1	50%	74–69	✗
Pepperdine @ UC San Diego	+5.3	139.0	65%	76–94	✓
Washington @ Nevada	+10.6	148.1	79%	53–63	✓
Boise State @ San Francisco	+1.5	141.8	50%	73–84	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Indiana	+19.1	149.3	89%	55–90	✓
App State @ Wisconsin	+20.9	141.4	91%	56–87	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Vanderbilt	+22.3	146.7	91%	76–85	✓
Niagara @ Detroit Mercy	+5.9	145.8	75%	78–84	✓
North Florida @ Georgia Tech	+4.7	146.7	58%	105–93	✗
Michigan @ Wake Forest	-8.7	142.6	22%	70–72	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Drake	—	—	—	51–66	—
Saint Francis @ Campbell	+9.7	131.7	80%	65–64	✗
Harvard @ American University	+3.7	137.7	62%	55–67	✓
Maine @ Brown	+12.5	142.2	86%	69–67	✗
Princeton @ Northeastern	+14.5	146.6	87%	79–76	✗
UC Irvine @ Northern Iowa	+5.5	138.6	59%	80–60	✗
Binghamton @ Miami	+20.6	154.3	90%	64–88	✓
St. Thomas @ Oklahoma State	+2.6	149.7	48%	71–80	✓
SE Louisiana @ UAB	—	—	—	72–82	—
Texas Southern @ Georgia	+7.6	144.8	74%	64–92	✓
Tennessee State @ Wyoming	—	—	—	66–81	—
Arizona State @ Gonzaga	+12.7	144.2	80%	80–88	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Creighton	+18.5	157.0	88%	70–96	✓
Alabama State @ LSU	+19.1	149.7	89%	61–74	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.