We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–12 on winners spread MAE 9.3 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland @ Ohio State +2.3 149.3 60% 70–73 ✓
Temple @ South Florida +0.3 149.1 51% 91–100 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner -0.7 125.6 44% 60–47 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis +4.4 145.2 68% 78–86 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State -0.7 133.5 43% 78–85 ✗
UMBC @ New Hampshire -5.9 150.3 26% 78–79 ✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland +3.8 134.2 67% 84–75 ✗
Elon @ Campbell +2.2 135.2 63% 58–76 ✓
Hampton @ Monmouth +1.1 142.6 58% 63–68 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +1.6 144.3 60% 66–86 ✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra +2.4 133.7 63% 77–68 ✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson -8.9 146.6 17% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Florida Gulf Coast +6.2 146.4 75% 92–74 ✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +14.1 147.6 89% 71–89 ✓
Niagara @ Merrimack +8.6 129.4 81% 59–64 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield -6.4 134.9 24% 56–59 ✗
Rider @ Sacred Heart +3.9 141.6 67% 77–89 ✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's +3.6 139.9 65% 70–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Siena +4.5 129.3 65% 63–77 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State +2.4 137.7 67% 63–77 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +1.4 148.0 57% 69–76 ✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International +0.5 141.7 51% 82–85 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -0.5 137.5 51% 80–51 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +11.3 134.5 85% 66–87 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona +0.3 141.1 50% 64–69 ✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado +5.4 152.9 76% 86–78 ✗
Bellarmine @ North Florida +10.8 162.2 86% 88–95 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +6.7 145.9 78% 73–94 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State +3.0 153.3 66% 86–102 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -4.7 139.3 30% 78–72 ✓
North Dakota @ Omaha +6.4 156.2 77% 77–80 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State +8.6 143.5 82% 69–87 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty +6.0 134.2 74% 53–77 ✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana -3.6 130.4 35% 74–56 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +6.0 152.3 76% 70–78 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho -0.2 147.3 49% 76–69 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +8.5 133.8 80% 80–83 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga +16.4 149.3 90% 53–73 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco -0.9 131.8 45% 64–65 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech +0.5 137.4 53% 86–72 ✗
South Dakota @ Denver -1.8 159.3 40% 86–79 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +4.0 141.4 68% 52–51 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.1 140.4 42% 81–75 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego +13.0 142.5 87% 71–91 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge +14.4 148.1 88% 63–82 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly +0.1 151.5 50% 63–79 ✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State -3.5 132.7 31% 73–65 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +2.8 142.1 64% 69–71 ✓
Santa Clara @ Portland -14.3 155.3 14% 97–50 ✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U +8.3 130.0 83% 54–91 ✓
Southern Utah @ California Baptist +9.5 137.9 83% 60–57 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech -0.3 138.0 49% 75–58 ✓
Washington State @ Oregon State +6.0 150.3 74% 74–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.