I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–27 on winners spread MAE 9.6 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UCF @ Houston +12.4 147.8 86% 55–79 ✓
Michigan State @ Minnesota -10.2 133.6 18% 73–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Louisville +15.8 150.6 88% 65–76 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +8.2 140.1 80% 60–59 ✗
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's -2.5 147.1 42% 73–76 ✗
Duquesne @ George Mason +7.4 145.2 78% 71–65 ✗
UTSA @ South Florida +19.9 153.8 91% 88–109 ✓
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic -2.4 159.1 42% 78–76 ✓
Army @ Colgate +10.5 149.4 86% 55–69 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford -4.3 156.3 32% 80–78 ✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb -11.2 143.6 15% 86–66 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +12.8 157.0 88% 55–80 ✓
Butler @ Providence +1.1 163.2 56% 87–97 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland +0.1 144.5 47% 84–89 ✓
Navy @ Lafayette -5.7 135.3 25% 65–50 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State +0.6 148.9 52% 77–62 ✗
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.2 143.5 67% 90–61 ✗
Oakland @ Cleveland State -8.1 163.6 19% 78–91 ✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris -1.3 146.8 45% 66–72 ✗
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +4.6 146.9 71% 87–84 ✗
Furman @ East Tennessee State +5.9 141.4 75% 71–75 ✓
UL Monroe @ Old Dominion +11.5 149.7 87% 85–79 ✗
Southern Miss @ Marshall +10.4 143.0 84% 77–81 ✓
Louisiana @ James Madison +8.1 132.5 79% 64–61 ✗
Troy @ Georgia State -3.6 145.3 32% 74–63 ✓
Texas State @ Georgia Southern +3.1 146.0 65% 77–71 ✗
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina +1.0 146.9 55% 70–66 ✗
Texas A&M @ Alabama +5.6 172.4 71% 97–100 ✓
Liberty @ Delaware -10.7 132.8 17% 75–69 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +3.3 140.1 64% 74–68 ✗
Charlotte @ Wichita State +7.4 144.0 79% 64–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +4.9 143.2 71% 67–64 ✗
Creighton @ Georgetown +2.2 143.0 61% 68–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas +13.2 143.5 88% 60–81 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +4.4 145.7 69% 88–84 ✗
UTEP @ Sam Houston +13.3 140.5 88% 66–70 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech -1.5 133.1 49% 72–63 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -1.9 133.1 41% 83–86 ✗
Colorado @ Baylor +5.5 157.0 71% 67–86 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State -4.2 130.1 31% 54–63 ✗
Georgia Tech @ California +10.8 142.7 85% 85–90 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City -4.1 150.1 28% 82–75 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +3.4 149.4 67% 76–63 ✗
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +3.4 146.3 70% 76–87 ✓
Northwestern @ Illinois +13.5 146.9 88% 44–84 ✓
BYU @ Oklahoma State -4.2 160.9 31% 92–99 ✗
Arizona State @ Utah +0.6 155.3 55% 71–63 ✗
Oklahoma @ Kentucky +11.1 149.8 85% 78–94 ✓
Gonzaga @ Portland -15.9 145.0 14% 80–87 ✗
Clemson @ Stanford -2.8 137.7 37% 66–64 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific -5.0 145.1 30% 71–56 ✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +16.2 144.0 90% 60–87 ✓
Pepperdine @ Seattle U +9.7 132.7 85% 81–83 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +7.8 139.8 78% 84–75 ✗
Iowa @ Washington -0.6 137.8 48% 84–74 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico +2.6 148.4 65% 86–66 ✗
Washington State @ Oregon State -1.8 146.3 45% 64–74 ✗
Vermont @ Maine -6.8 129.0 23% 70–76 ✗
Binghamton @ UMBC +12.7 138.8 88% 62–79 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +0.1 131.9 48% 65–63 ✗
Penn State @ Michigan +21.0 156.3 91% 69–110 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.