I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–16 on winners spread MAE 8.1 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
West Virginia @ Cincinnati +1.5 124.8 58% 59–54 ✗
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +0.3 147.8 52% 92–87 ✗
Iona @ Siena +5.8 137.6 73% 72–79 ✓
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's -3.3 129.9 35% 87–70 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +11.0 138.5 87% 60–75 ✓
Rider @ Marist +13.2 131.8 88% 52–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan -4.3 141.3 30% 80–75 ✓
Chicago State @ Central Connecticut +7.4 135.7 77% 67–78 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mercyhurst +10.2 131.9 85% 89–98 ✓
New Haven @ Long Island University +10.4 132.9 87% 55–60 ✓
Le Moyne @ Wagner -0.1 139.7 48% 78–79 ✗
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.4 129.3 49% 58–74 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT +3.3 143.7 66% 56–81 ✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra +10.4 150.4 85% 63–80 ✓
Monmouth @ Stony Brook +3.2 137.1 67% 76–75 ✗
Drexel @ Campbell +1.1 137.5 56% 60–81 ✓
William & Mary @ UNC Wilmington +4.4 149.4 71% 85–78 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston +7.9 148.5 80% 62–78 ✓
Elon @ Hampton -2.1 141.4 42% 79–87 ✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga -7.7 150.0 23% 75–79 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine +3.9 147.5 66% 71–92 ✓
North Florida @ West Georgia +5.6 161.0 71% 81–73 ✗
Jacksonville @ Queens University +6.7 145.7 76% 84–93 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky -0.1 152.4 50% 74–76 ✗
Denver @ North Dakota State +11.0 153.0 87% 78–71 ✗
Omaha @ North Dakota +1.4 146.0 58% 73–76 ✓
The Citadel @ Samford +8.9 141.9 83% 64–78 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +12.8 141.3 88% 55–68 ✓
Lindenwood @ Little Rock -2.1 143.7 41% 79–74 ✓
Ohio State @ Maryland -8.4 150.1 20% 82–62 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +8.3 141.5 81% 72–97 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +10.2 129.4 85% 54–76 ✓
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State +5.5 140.2 72% 70–82 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +7.1 138.4 77% 68–77 ✓
Memphis @ UAB +1.8 146.5 63% 90–80 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -0.4 146.2 51% 75–85 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Weber State +1.1 157.1 57% 88–74 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +8.3 139.5 80% 79–73 ✗
Idaho @ Montana State +3.9 142.3 68% 66–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +7.8 147.3 81% 82–74 ✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech +0.8 135.1 53% 84–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky +4.2 134.9 67% 71–66 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +7.1 149.2 77% 72–78 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly -0.0 165.9 51% 97–96 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +13.5 141.6 88% 62–78 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +9.6 140.1 83% 74–77 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +7.6 144.1 81% 55–56 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Davidson +11.8 139.7 87% 64–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.