I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–14 on winners spread MAE 7.2 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +2.2 152.3 60% 81–84 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +6.4 135.0 74% 63–69 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky +2.0 150.9 58% 96–87 ✗
Colorado State @ San Diego State +3.2 141.8 60% 62–71 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -3.7 145.4 35% 70–80 ✗
Rutgers @ UCLA +10.0 141.3 82% 59–72 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central -1.2 131.5 43% 76–83 ✗
Clemson @ North Carolina +2.4 135.7 60% 80–79 ✗
Georgetown @ Villanova +7.8 139.1 78% 78–64 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas -1.4 134.8 43% 70–74 ✗
TCU @ Kansas +3.8 139.7 63% 73–78 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M +1.5 159.4 55% 83–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech +2.9 140.0 61% 74–80 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton -0.8 151.7 48% 70–82 ✗
San José State @ New Mexico +13.2 148.0 86% 77–93 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +6.9 155.0 77% 81–88 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +11.2 153.3 83% 67–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Louisiana Tech +0.9 133.0 54% 66–69 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +9.1 155.2 78% 63–71 ✓
Charlotte @ UAB +3.4 142.8 65% 83–78 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M -0.7 141.3 48% 74–55 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Dayton +6.4 140.0 74% 63–68 ✓
Wisconsin @ Illinois +5.9 158.2 72% 91–88 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston +4.1 156.1 67% 79–73 ✗
North Texas @ Tulsa +9.3 138.3 80% 84–90 ✓
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt -0.3 146.3 51% 68–75 ✗
Massachusetts @ Toledo +3.2 154.5 64% 67–77 ✓
Duquesne @ VCU +8.9 147.5 81% 66–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +9.9 131.9 83% 68–78 ✓
South Carolina State @ Howard +13.5 141.9 87% 61–78 ✓
Purdue @ Nebraska -0.5 140.8 46% 74–58 ✓
Iowa State @ Arizona +3.4 141.3 64% 80–82 ✓
Miami @ Virginia +1.9 143.2 57% 62–84 ✓
Ole Miss @ Alabama +9.3 160.3 81% 80–79 ✗
Kent State @ Akron +7.6 161.5 77% 68–75 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's -0.7 129.4 47% 58–70 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.