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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
39 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tennessee
@
Florida
|
+2.5 | 138.7 | 64% | 43–73 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Duke
|
+12.1 | 139.7 | 79% | 47–76 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Georgia
|
+1.6 | 151.4 | 63% | 69–82 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
West Virginia
|
-0.5 | 142.1 | 35% | 75–56 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Syracuse
|
+2.5 | 151.8 | 57% | 55–62 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
Louisville
|
+2.3 | 143.8 | 66% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Buffalo
|
-8.9 | 154.0 | 20% | 88–79 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Ball State
|
+0.0 | 144.3 | 46% | 80–72 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Northern Illinois
|
-13.2 | 134.7 | 14% | 68–50 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Toledo
|
+10.3 | 152.5 | 83% | 87–90 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Akron
|
+7.1 | 143.9 | 79% | 71–87 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Western Michigan
|
+2.6 | 147.8 | 57% | 83–79 | ✗ |
Tulane
@
UAB
|
+4.5 | 153.1 | 68% | 69–81 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Iowa State
|
+13.2 | 152.1 | 88% | 59–82 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Marquette
|
+14.4 | 141.1 | 88% | 66–74 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Baylor
|
+7.7 | 136.3 | 83% | 48–68 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Oklahoma State
|
+1.2 | 142.5 | 63% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
UTSA
|
+4.8 | 152.3 | 69% | 82–77 | ✗ |
UIC
@
Missouri State
|
+0.8 | 141.3 | 54% | 80–63 | ✗ |
Nebraska
@
Iowa
|
+2.1 | 153.7 | 59% | 87–97 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Eastern Illinois
|
-3.7 | 134.6 | 34% | 60–57 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Texas
|
-6.8 | 149.1 | 19% | 87–82 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Vanderbilt
|
+0.2 | 150.9 | 45% | 76–64 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
+13.7 | 152.5 | 88% | 64–91 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
BYU
|
+2.9 | 144.7 | 58% | 72–67 | ✗ |
SMU
@
North Carolina
|
+3.1 | 161.6 | 64% | 67–82 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Missouri
|
+4.2 | 153.6 | 76% | 67–83 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
UCLA
|
+1.6 | 141.0 | 65% | 94–75 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
San José State
|
-11.5 | 146.6 | 14% | 85–78 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Wyoming
|
-3.6 | 146.2 | 31% | 61–53 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Boise State
|
+8.3 | 138.6 | 81% | 59–81 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Saint Mary's
|
+15.8 | 134.4 | 88% | 56–81 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Army
|
+1.4 | 148.1 | 62% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Holy Cross
|
+4.1 | 141.5 | 64% | 59–70 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Villanova
|
+1.9 | 146.6 | 57% | 66–68 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
La Salle
|
+2.1 | 144.4 | 59% | 79–68 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
Seton Hall
|
+0.0 | 135.5 | 62% | 80–85 | ✓ |
Coastal Carolina
@
App State
|
+7.7 | 129.7 | 81% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Youngstown State
|
+3.0 | 140.8 | 64% | 61–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.