See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–20 on winners spread MAE 8.6 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois +6.8 141.5 74% 83–79 ✗
Columbia @ Yale +17.9 156.8 89% 64–90 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +9.9 144.7 84% 71–60 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +0.6 151.2 47% 76–70 ✗
William & Mary @ Elon +4.6 151.8 70% 79–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State -7.4 134.9 25% 58–56 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +2.0 148.7 53% 81–73 ✗
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +5.7 140.5 77% 72–80 ✓
Duke @ Illinois -5.5 153.6 29% 110–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Missouri State -1.4 137.1 43% 70–68 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +5.9 137.9 80% 71–79 ✓
Dartmouth @ Princeton +7.7 143.0 79% 76–61 ✗
Sacramento State @ Idaho State +9.1 133.9 82% 66–83 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +9.5 153.4 86% 74–92 ✓
Butler @ DePaul -4.4 144.0 37% 84–72 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +2.4 143.9 58% 62–60 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +7.6 135.1 76% 57–67 ✓
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +9.9 146.1 84% 64–66 ✓
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts -7.7 155.9 32% 66–71 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +1.7 143.9 65% 63–64 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +5.6 164.7 78% 85–93 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +6.4 144.5 66% 74–67 ✗
Missouri @ Arkansas -0.1 148.2 59% 85–92 ✗
Texas @ South Carolina -3.1 141.0 42% 69–84 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -5.8 139.9 27% 68–82 ✗
Montana @ Montana State +2.0 144.2 56% 89–85 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +5.0 143.8 72% 82–93 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -8.0 138.8 23% 73–64 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV +0.1 136.4 48% 61–53 ✗
California @ Stanford +5.2 145.8 73% 61–66 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +15.4 137.1 89% 44–83 ✓
BYU @ Arizona +8.2 152.8 75% 96–95 ✗
UConn @ St. John's +7.1 139.4 76% 75–89 ✓
North Texas @ South Florida -5.3 132.2 22% 64–57 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +5.8 149.3 77% 53–84 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -2.9 142.1 42% 65–84 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +7.5 146.0 82% 67–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Iona +0.3 132.9 50% 77–70 ✗
Purdue @ Indiana -3.0 143.8 41% 58–73 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis +9.5 160.2 82% 65–84 ✓
Tulane @ Wichita State +3.6 144.7 70% 67–78 ✓
UTSA @ East Carolina +5.4 149.1 72% 89–96 ✓
Temple @ UAB +6.9 163.1 76% 64–80 ✓
Holy Cross @ Navy +4.3 136.1 75% 77–83 ✓
Xavier @ Seton Hall -9.6 135.9 21% 73–66 ✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris +0.3 144.6 58% 59–72 ✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +11.3 151.0 87% 77–81 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +10.9 142.1 86% 65–70 ✓
Canisius @ Siena +11.0 145.8 84% 93–88 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan -2.0 152.8 46% 74–71 ✓
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +6.2 138.6 73% 72–79 ✓
Niagara @ Marist +7.1 129.7 75% 61–64 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Peter's +1.7 138.5 55% 79–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +1.1 134.5 53% 86–91 ✓
Ohio State @ UCLA +4.5 137.2 75% 61–69 ✓
Utah @ UCF +1.8 154.9 59% 72–76 ✓
Arizona State @ Kansas State +4.4 146.5 70% 66–54 ✗
Drake @ Northern Iowa -1.4 128.5 34% 64–58 ✓
Georgetown @ Creighton +12.5 146.1 87% 69–80 ✓
USC @ Rutgers +1.9 151.6 60% 85–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.