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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–20 on winners spread MAE 8.3 69 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida State @ North Carolina +13.7 157.7 86% 66–79 ✓
Duquesne @ Davidson +4.3 145.9 71% 89–83 ✗
Temple @ Charlotte +2.3 138.9 62% 76–73 ✗
Seton Hall @ Marquette -2.8 136.5 44% 79–73 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wisconsin +14.5 154.1 87% 60–80 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Miami +8.5 143.2 83% 69–76 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green +3.8 145.8 69% 93–83 ✗
South Carolina State @ Tennessee +26.3 144.8 91% 54–105 ✓
Massachusetts @ Eastern Michigan +0.1 141.9 49% 74–80 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech +0.8 149.4 53% 88–76 ✗
New Hampshire @ Nebraska +25.9 145.6 91% 55–86 ✓
Louisville @ California -5.5 154.3 35% 90–70 ✓
Nevada @ Colorado State +5.1 144.9 66% 75–62 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -13.0 137.3 14% 72–45 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -11.3 144.3 16% 72–63 ✓
Notre Dame @ Stanford +3.6 143.2 72% 47–40 ✗
Butler @ Creighton +3.5 151.2 67% 85–89 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Diego -14.2 154.4 12% 99–93 ✓
Washington State @ Seattle U +4.5 137.7 71% 55–69 ✓
Santa Clara @ Portland -12.0 148.2 16% 92–85 ✓
San Francisco @ Oregon State -3.2 143.2 38% 62–70 ✗
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +3.4 135.3 69% 71–80 ✓
San Diego State @ San José State -7.9 143.2 26% 81–68 ✓
New Mexico @ Boise State +4.9 143.1 72% 53–62 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Rhode Island +12.8 139.6 86% 61–57 ✗
Tulane @ East Carolina +0.4 139.0 59% 79–70 ✗
Army @ Lehigh +2.3 145.9 63% 85–78 ✗
Wake Forest @ NC State +7.6 157.8 79% 57–70 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +3.6 148.8 71% 72–74 ✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M -0.2 142.6 46% 69–62 ✓
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic +14.6 150.2 89% 70–110 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +8.0 150.0 79% 69–84 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +5.5 137.6 73% 77–82 ✓
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois -4.8 144.9 39% 81–67 ✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina -2.9 146.3 36% 79–74 ✓
South Alabama @ Louisiana -5.4 127.7 28% 63–58 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech -1.3 152.0 51% 85–95 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +11.1 149.9 82% 82–89 ✓
George Mason @ La Salle -9.0 136.0 18% 80–75 ✓
Fordham @ Dayton +12.5 139.3 87% 56–63 ✓
Rice @ Tulsa +14.7 153.4 88% 48–97 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross +2.1 133.7 58% 58–65 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate +3.7 158.2 68% 76–69 ✗
High Point @ UNC Asheville -9.0 147.8 22% 87–69 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb -11.9 159.1 15% 89–79 ✓
Clemson @ Syracuse -1.8 136.3 46% 64–61 ✓
NJIT @ Pennsylvania +10.7 143.6 88% 61–80 ✓
Charleston @ Elon +4.9 152.3 72% 85–81 ✗
Campbell @ Monmouth +1.6 145.6 62% 68–65 ✗
Stony Brook @ William & Mary +10.9 145.8 87% 57–76 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +10.9 148.5 85% 80–100 ✓
App State @ Old Dominion +1.6 136.7 55% 81–73 ✗
Towson @ Hampton -4.3 133.2 36% 62–63 ✗
Colgate @ Lafayette -5.1 147.6 34% 85–77 ✓
Winthrop @ Longwood -7.3 156.0 32% 70–82 ✗
Northeastern @ North Carolina A&T -0.2 146.6 53% 85–74 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Duke +21.2 150.6 90% 79–85 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis +18.2 152.8 89% 79–102 ✓
George Washington @ Richmond +1.2 154.5 50% 99–85 ✗
North Texas @ Memphis +9.0 133.0 82% 48–57 ✓
Wichita State @ UAB +1.7 140.6 58% 75–70 ✗
Kansas City @ Denver +8.2 147.4 80% 74–87 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +13.2 147.5 87% 80–84 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State -10.2 138.9 22% 74–64 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.0 140.0 69% 69–83 ✓
UConn @ Xavier -9.5 141.3 26% 90–67 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +11.3 158.9 85% 61–84 ✓
Nicholls @ UT Rio Grande Valley +3.1 141.8 65% 71–69 ✗
DePaul @ Villanova +13.9 136.6 87% 66–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.