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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–4 on winners
spread MAE 15.8
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Pennsylvania
|
+30.0 | 142.2 | 100% | 84–85 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
Central Michigan
|
+32.0 | 152.2 | 100% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Charleston Southern
@
North Florida
|
+27.4 | 149.6 | 99% | 66–90 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Southern Indiana
|
+15.2 | 153.9 | 92% | 75–69 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Iowa
|
+20.4 | 154.4 | 97% | 74–89 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Saint Mary's
|
+16.9 | 140.6 | 94% | 74–86 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
USC
|
+16.9 | 126.2 | 94% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
California
|
+13.1 | 157.4 | 88% | 73–91 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Utah
|
+29.0 | 149.5 | 100% | 63–98 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
North Carolina Central
|
+16.8 | 141.9 | 94% | 88–82 | ✗ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
Stanford
|
+17.1 | 154.4 | 94% | 53–80 | ✓ |
Army
@
Duke
|
+25.7 | 143.9 | 99% | 58–100 | ✓ |
Temple
@
Monmouth
|
+2.9 | 146.1 | 61% | 103–74 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
VCU
|
+3.5 | 142.3 | 62% | 55–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.