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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–11 on winners
spread MAE 15.2
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina
@
Kansas
|
+22.2 | 153.2 | 98% | 89–92 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Purdue
|
+15.2 | 150.0 | 92% | 50–72 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Cincinnati
|
+39.4 | 150.4 | 100% | 56–83 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Charleston
|
+25.4 | 169.3 | 99% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
NC State
|
+18.2 | 161.5 | 95% | 72–81 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Rhode Island
|
+26.9 | 150.4 | 99% | 77–91 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
West Virginia
|
+19.1 | 156.6 | 96% | 69–75 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Virginia Tech
|
+23.3 | 151.9 | 98% | 74–93 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Clemson
|
+24.8 | 148.8 | 99% | 62–88 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+8.9 | 132.0 | 79% | 73–67 | ✗ |
South Alabama
@
Nicholls
|
+32.7 | 157.6 | 100% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Georgia State
@
Mississippi State
|
+25.7 | 147.7 | 99% | 66–101 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Alabama
|
+34.5 | 156.6 | 100% | 79–88 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Texas A&M
|
+20.3 | 146.9 | 97% | 55–87 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Arizona State
|
-3.5 | 134.7 | 38% | 74–81 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Missouri
|
+24.0 | 150.6 | 99% | 62–77 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Illinois
|
+26.0 | 156.3 | 99% | 58–90 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Duquesne
|
-2.7 | 155.2 | 40% | 75–68 | ✓ |
Harvard
@
Navy
|
+19.6 | 142.9 | 96% | 80–85 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Villanova
|
+18.1 | 136.4 | 95% | 54–91 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Marquette
|
+30.9 | 146.1 | 100% | 63–82 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
BYU
|
+22.5 | 149.9 | 98% | 80–86 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
San Diego
|
+15.1 | 147.3 | 91% | 60–74 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
UCLA
|
+14.4 | 154.7 | 91% | 72–64 | ✗ |
Bradley
@
Washington State
|
+9.6 | 162.7 | 81% | 74–91 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Louisville
|
+22.6 | 140.4 | 98% | 77–55 | ✗ |
Fordham
@
Seton Hall
|
+17.4 | 134.3 | 94% | 57–56 | ✗ |
Wright State
@
Miami (OH)
|
+34.6 | 151.5 | 100% | 81–68 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Columbia
|
+30.5 | 157.2 | 100% | 62–83 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
High Point
|
+40.3 | 148.4 | 100% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Quinnipiac
@
St. John's
|
+24.7 | 150.7 | 99% | 73–96 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Coppin State
|
+11.1 | 131.3 | 84% | 64–53 | ✗ |
Omaha
@
Minnesota
|
+12.4 | 147.3 | 87% | 64–68 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
La Salle
|
+16.5 | 131.7 | 93% | 60–81 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Arizona
|
+26.5 | 157.3 | 99% | 44–102 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Kentucky
|
+10.5 | 153.8 | 83% | 72–100 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Utah State
|
+28.7 | 155.4 | 100% | 74–103 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Georgetown
|
+16.4 | 157.7 | 93% | 57–69 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Kansas State
|
+29.1 | 153.0 | 100% | 64–77 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Canisius
|
+7.7 | 141.6 | 76% | 87–78 | ✗ |
Troy
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+15.4 | 154.2 | 92% | 78–61 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
UNLV
|
+18.5 | 160.2 | 95% | 80–74 | ✗ |
Stonehill
@
Providence
|
+16.2 | 137.2 | 93% | 49–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.