← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–13 on winners
spread MAE 13.4
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Montana State
@
Wichita State
|
+17.1 | 158.4 | 94% | 69–89 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Ohio
|
+30.0 | 158.6 | 100% | 76–82 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Rice
|
+0.2 | 148.6 | 51% | 73–65 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Arkansas
|
+11.4 | 149.0 | 85% | 72–67 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Dayton
|
+4.8 | 139.5 | 67% | 66–71 | ✓ |
New Hampshire
@
UConn
|
+28.2 | 160.4 | 99% | 53–92 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Tarleton State
|
+7.9 | 155.5 | 76% | 91–62 | ✗ |
Western Kentucky
@
Grand Canyon
|
+16.9 | 167.7 | 94% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Seattle U
|
+5.9 | 163.7 | 70% | 66–64 | ✗ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Nebraska
|
+22.1 | 149.4 | 98% | 58–63 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Houston
|
+2.2 | 145.0 | 58% | 74–69 | ✗ |
Pepperdine
@
UC San Diego
|
+12.3 | 141.8 | 87% | 76–94 | ✓ |
Washington
@
Nevada
|
+15.2 | 157.0 | 92% | 53–63 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
San Francisco
|
-2.1 | 147.1 | 42% | 73–84 | ✗ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Indiana
|
+22.2 | 158.5 | 98% | 55–90 | ✓ |
App State
@
Wisconsin
|
+30.9 | 143.6 | 100% | 56–87 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Vanderbilt
|
+31.2 | 149.7 | 100% | 76–85 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Detroit Mercy
|
+17.2 | 156.1 | 94% | 78–84 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
Georgia Tech
|
+7.5 | 149.2 | 75% | 105–93 | ✗ |
Michigan
@
Wake Forest
|
-18.4 | 143.8 | 5% | 70–72 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
Campbell
|
+18.5 | 138.7 | 95% | 65–64 | ✗ |
Harvard
@
American University
|
+7.6 | 141.3 | 76% | 55–67 | ✓ |
Maine
@
Brown
|
+22.1 | 144.6 | 98% | 69–67 | ✗ |
Princeton
@
Northeastern
|
+21.7 | 152.3 | 98% | 79–76 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
Northern Iowa
|
+5.5 | 140.7 | 69% | 80–60 | ✗ |
Binghamton
@
Miami
|
+28.5 | 169.2 | 100% | 64–88 | ✓ |
St. Thomas
@
Oklahoma State
|
-0.7 | 157.7 | 47% | 71–80 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Georgia
|
+8.5 | 149.2 | 78% | 64–92 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Gonzaga
|
+18.3 | 140.7 | 95% | 80–88 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Creighton
|
+21.2 | 173.8 | 97% | 70–96 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
LSU
|
+24.0 | 161.2 | 99% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.