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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–8 on winners spread MAE 13.4 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Coppin State @ UMBC	+13.9	127.2	90%	67–92	✓
Stonehill @ Robert Morris	+17.5	153.9	94%	51–63	✓
South Carolina State @ Jacksonville	+13.3	146.6	89%	62–71	✓
Bryant @ Buffalo	+17.5	166.9	94%	87–64	✗
Nicholls @ Northern Kentucky	+5.8	139.7	70%	61–59	✗
Northern Iowa @ Wichita State	+20.6	162.8	97%	73–79	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Missouri	+18.5	144.0	95%	39–111	✓
Morehead State @ Chattanooga	+18.6	136.5	95%	62–76	✓
Southern Illinois @ Oklahoma State	+18.1	157.1	95%	78–85	✓
Northern Colorado @ South Dakota State	-8.8	175.9	21%	78–69	✓
Grand Canyon @ Arizona State	+10.3	147.1	83%	76–87	✓
LSU @ Kansas State	+4.6	147.1	66%	76–65	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico State	+20.9	155.1	97%	82–83	✓
Seattle U @ Cal Poly	+13.5	162.2	89%	71–75	✓
Omaha @ UNLV	+3.0	160.4	61%	69–80	✓
Northern Arizona @ Pacific	+14.3	153.1	90%	60–57	✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Charleston Southern	-2.5	167.2	41%	86–76	✓
Tennessee Tech @ VMI	+4.6	149.2	66%	72–71	✗
LSU New Orleans @ Stonehill	-2.0	149.1	43%	54–80	✗
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart	-0.3	151.4	49%	82–75	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Michigan	+10.9	141.8	84%	79–60	✗
William & Mary @ Winthrop	+15.1	143.1	91%	85–86	✓
Virginia @ Villanova	+1.1	143.6	54%	70–60	✗
Florida @ Florida State	-2.2	151.8	42%	87–74	✓
TCU @ Michigan	+16.1	146.4	93%	64–76	✓
Monmouth @ Rutgers	+22.7	151.5	98%	81–98	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.