The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–9 on winners spread MAE 7.3 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State +0.8 156.7 53% 79–77 ✗
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman +3.6 135.7 63% 60–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist -0.2 131.9 49% 62–58 ✓
USC @ Purdue +8.7 151.9 79% 71–76 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee +1.1 143.8 54% 75–77 ✓
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian -6.0 133.5 29% 69–63 ✓
Nevada @ Colorado State +3.2 140.1 62% 59–67 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +2.7 152.2 60% 78–72 ✗
SMU @ Clemson +4.6 148.8 66% 54–57 ✓
Kansas @ Arizona +1.2 152.5 54% 77–88 ✓
UTSA @ East Carolina +1.1 155.1 54% 65–70 ✓
Villanova @ UConn +3.1 142.5 61% 56–73 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kentucky +6.9 165.1 73% 84–85 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +8.5 129.1 78% 51–55 ✓
UNLV @ Utah State +7.3 147.0 75% 58–70 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +2.6 170.2 59% 96–83 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +9.1 130.2 80% 59–76 ✓
Oregon @ Michigan State +4.7 144.2 67% 64–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +7.5 142.3 75% 79–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ Auburn +11.2 155.7 85% 57–62 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +10.1 151.7 82% 80–83 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +3.0 134.1 61% 62–64 ✓
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago -1.2 144.2 46% 64–72 ✗
Wisconsin @ UCLA -0.6 141.9 48% 86–70 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State -0.8 144.0 47% 68–70 ✗
Texas @ Tennessee +8.2 136.3 77% 72–83 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -2.9 152.0 39% 76–83 ✗
Toledo @ Akron +9.6 170.1 81% 90–100 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +3.3 131.5 62% 65–80 ✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +11.6 161.2 85% 55–58 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac +3.6 145.8 63% 81–73 ✗
Marquette @ St. John's +1.5 146.0 55% 63–79 ✓
Illinois @ Maryland +0.7 159.5 53% 65–88 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +14.3 154.9 90% 71–74 ✓
BYU @ Houston +8.3 140.5 78% 54–74 ✓
Missouri @ Florida +6.1 161.2 71% 81–95 ✓
Tulsa @ North Texas +12.7 124.9 88% 59–77 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Dayton +0.4 148.2 52% 73–68 ✗
Kent State @ Miami (OH) -2.5 143.4 41% 64–72 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.