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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
48 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BYU
@
UConn
|
-0.3 | 149.0 | 49% | 84–86 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+12.1 | 145.7 | 86% | 51–68 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Nebraska
|
+0.5 | 148.2 | 52% | 99–105 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Santa Clara
|
+16.1 | 150.7 | 93% | 83–98 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
UNC Wilmington
|
+4.0 | 143.5 | 64% | 60–73 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
Ball State
|
+17.6 | 143.0 | 95% | 68–62 | ✗ |
James Madison
@
Long Island University
|
+13.7 | 154.9 | 89% | 79–88 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Dayton
|
+17.5 | 155.6 | 94% | 82–91 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Elon
|
+19.2 | 174.6 | 96% | 84–95 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
Omaha
|
+20.5 | 152.7 | 97% | 85–90 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Saint Louis
|
+15.1 | 168.4 | 91% | 64–78 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Villanova
|
+18.9 | 165.8 | 96% | 77–87 | ✓ |
Belmont
@
Oral Roberts
|
+9.3 | 166.6 | 80% | 83–60 | ✗ |
Green Bay
@
Minnesota
|
+23.4 | 143.3 | 98% | 65–72 | ✓ |
Portland
@
Wyoming
|
+14.5 | 152.1 | 91% | 56–93 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Utah
|
+8.8 | 173.3 | 79% | 79–85 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Manhattan
|
+13.1 | 159.9 | 88% | 73–80 | ✓ |
Utah Valley
@
Fresno State
|
+11.4 | 164.0 | 85% | 74–75 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
UC Irvine
|
-0.8 | 153.1 | 47% | 70–79 | ✗ |
Bradley
@
San Francisco
|
+8.3 | 136.3 | 78% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Seattle U
|
+8.0 | 143.2 | 77% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Hawai'i
|
+22.6 | 148.0 | 98% | 62–68 | ✓ |
App State
@
Dartmouth
|
+3.5 | 139.0 | 63% | 85–77 | ✗ |
Wagner
@
UMBC
|
+14.3 | 149.8 | 90% | 70–71 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Kent State
|
-4.7 | 173.8 | 34% | 72–76 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Ohio State
|
+4.9 | 160.0 | 67% | 63–64 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Western Carolina
|
+12.3 | 156.2 | 87% | 65–76 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Valparaiso
|
+6.8 | 147.0 | 73% | 50–68 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Hampton
|
+5.5 | 149.2 | 69% | 67–61 | ✗ |
South Florida
@
Kennesaw State
|
+3.1 | 170.6 | 61% | 108–89 | ✗ |
Samford
@
Central Arkansas
|
-1.8 | 157.5 | 43% | 84–77 | ✓ |
Quinnipiac
@
Maine
|
+15.0 | 127.9 | 91% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Fairfield
|
+15.2 | 138.6 | 92% | 82–85 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Wake Forest
|
+31.5 | 157.4 | 100% | 75–109 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Virginia Tech
|
+17.5 | 155.8 | 94% | 76–84 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Oklahoma State
|
+19.7 | 139.3 | 96% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Massachusetts
|
+10.1 | 138.3 | 82% | 77–84 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
South Dakota
|
+4.1 | 165.5 | 65% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Radford
@
Cleveland State
|
-1.0 | 176.6 | 46% | 82–87 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Auburn
|
-0.6 | 141.6 | 48% | 73–72 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Western Kentucky
|
+14.5 | 165.0 | 91% | 82–95 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
Sacramento State
|
+13.9 | 145.7 | 90% | 62–64 | ✓ |
Lindenwood
@
Alabama A&M
|
+7.4 | 145.0 | 75% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Loyola Chicago
|
-10.7 | 168.4 | 17% | 80–67 | ✓ |
Harvard
@
Marist
|
+16.8 | 136.3 | 94% | 56–54 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Memphis
|
+12.4 | 169.2 | 87% | 92–78 | ✗ |
Incarnate Word
@
Indiana
|
+34.0 | 160.4 | 100% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Cincinnati
|
+18.1 | 140.9 | 95% | 55–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.