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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–14 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grambling
@
Jackson State
|
-7.7 | 146.0 | 24% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Merrimack
|
+0.4 | 131.8 | 52% | 64–54 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Portland State
|
+2.7 | 143.7 | 60% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Santa Clara
@
Gonzaga
|
+8.4 | 158.8 | 78% | 68–79 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Jacksonville State
|
-1.8 | 142.6 | 43% | 68–63 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
McNeese
|
+6.1 | 143.6 | 71% | 80–84 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Colorado
|
-0.3 | 172.5 | 49% | 92–83 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Eastern Washington
|
-0.9 | 154.9 | 47% | 81–68 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
La Salle
|
-4.9 | 146.6 | 33% | 99–80 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Iowa
|
+13.6 | 139.0 | 89% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
NC State
|
+9.0 | 149.9 | 79% | 88–98 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Iowa State
|
+13.0 | 150.7 | 88% | 42–91 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Kentucky
|
+6.9 | 157.2 | 73% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+4.1 | 156.8 | 64% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Richmond
|
+9.5 | 147.4 | 81% | 75–67 | ✗ |
USC
@
Washington
|
+3.6 | 155.6 | 63% | 79–83 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Louisville
|
+6.6 | 168.4 | 73% | 58–62 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
UNLV
|
-1.5 | 159.9 | 44% | 70–73 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Auburn
|
+8.9 | 164.3 | 79% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
UCF
|
-2.0 | 150.9 | 43% | 65–66 | ✗ |
Providence
@
Butler
|
-0.5 | 177.3 | 48% | 91–81 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
-2.6 | 141.5 | 41% | 76–59 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Nevada
|
+21.8 | 140.3 | 98% | 45–80 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Morgan State
|
+3.4 | 141.5 | 62% | 75–70 | ✗ |
Xavier
@
Marquette
|
+1.4 | 159.2 | 55% | 89–87 | ✗ |
Missouri State
@
Liberty
|
+5.4 | 147.3 | 69% | 77–69 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Indiana
|
+4.7 | 147.1 | 66% | 74–61 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Texas
|
+6.3 | 153.3 | 72% | 76–66 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Lehigh
|
+0.2 | 152.3 | 51% | 60–74 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Memphis
|
+6.2 | 149.0 | 71% | 81–69 | ✗ |
California
@
Florida State
|
-0.4 | 155.6 | 48% | 89–95 | ✗ |
BYU
@
West Virginia
|
-6.0 | 145.0 | 29% | 68–48 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.