And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–13 on winners spread MAE 7.4 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian -2.3 141.8 42% 78–84 ✗
Jackson State @ Florida A&M +5.2 149.2 68% 60–70 ✓
Fresno State @ Colorado State +4.4 142.8 66% 63–67 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego +6.9 160.8 74% 69–72 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +5.9 137.6 70% 72–67 ✗
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston +4.9 157.9 67% 61–69 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul -0.8 139.1 47% 63–56 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson +4.5 144.7 66% 62–71 ✓
Temple @ Florida Atlantic +2.4 152.4 59% 59–63 ✓
South Carolina @ Oklahoma +6.1 152.8 71% 74–86 ✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU +4.4 161.2 65% 88–95 ✓
San José State @ Boise State +14.7 149.7 91% 84–74 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -2.3 150.1 42% 73–79 ✗
Idaho @ Montana -2.0 149.7 43% 77–66 ✓
Massachusetts @ Miami (OH) +9.1 170.3 80% 87–83 ✗
George Washington @ Fordham -8.0 144.4 23% 66–62 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +3.3 158.6 62% 74–81 ✓
Providence @ St. John's +13.5 171.7 89% 72–85 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State -1.2 146.1 46% 69–72 ✗
Iowa State @ Texas Tech -3.8 148.3 36% 75–53 ✓
Kentucky @ Missouri -6.1 152.7 29% 78–72 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo -0.2 152.2 49% 76–77 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern -0.6 148.4 48% 85–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +4.2 145.2 65% 63–57 ✗
Washington @ Wisconsin +5.0 159.0 67% 82–85 ✓
Louisville @ Miami -4.8 158.8 33% 73–78 ✗
Creighton @ Seton Hall +2.6 135.5 59% 61–72 ✓
UCF @ Arizona +16.1 162.9 93% 59–81 ✓
UNLV @ Utah State +11.1 165.1 84% 60–80 ✓
Auburn @ Tennessee +5.0 152.5 68% 62–72 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +12.2 166.5 87% 70–73 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne +0.0 145.5 50% 61–67 ✓
Nevada @ Grand Canyon +0.7 141.7 53% 84–80 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +8.1 147.0 77% 88–82 ✗
Ohio @ Kent State +4.1 166.9 65% 75–86 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech -3.4 134.5 38% 69–80 ✗
Northwestern @ Purdue +11.0 146.9 84% 68–81 ✓
Florida State @ Duke +20.9 151.9 97% 79–80 ✓
BYU @ Houston +5.6 149.2 69% 66–73 ✓
Xavier @ UConn +15.0 152.7 91% 68–93 ✓
Ole Miss @ Georgia +8.8 163.3 79% 76–72 ✗
Tulane @ Charlotte +1.4 146.7 55% 60–74 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Davidson +10.5 136.2 83% 59–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.