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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–6 on winners spread MAE 12.5 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ NC State +18.3 160.4 88% 79–85 ✓
Drake @ Charleston +9.3 145.8 73% 71–62 ✗
West Georgia @ Tennessee Tech +10.2 143.4 83% 61–59 ✗
Oakland @ UCF +20.0 155.6 89% 83–87 ✓
Colgate @ Siena +11.2 135.4 84% 72–69 ✗
Lafayette @ West Virginia +30.1 136.6 90% 59–81 ✓
Niagara @ Le Moyne -1.1 133.6 42% 68–74 ✗
Canisius @ High Point +17.9 138.7 88% 50–93 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Pennsylvania +3.8 148.8 74% 74–83 ✓
Bucknell @ Pittsburgh +8.7 134.7 77% 50–84 ✓
Lamar @ UL Monroe -1.4 141.3 47% 79–66 ✓
Stonehill @ Iowa State +27.0 144.8 91% 57–96 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Wisconsin +15.8 136.6 85% 69–94 ✓
Southern Illinois @ North Dakota State +5.3 151.7 77% 85–92 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Missouri +32.9 154.3 91% 73–91 ✓
Tulsa @ Kansas State +7.5 151.5 78% 83–84 ✓
Rice @ Tennessee +18.6 135.7 86% 66–91 ✓
Southern Utah @ Gonzaga +31.4 146.4 90% 50–122 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ UC Santa Barbara +6.0 141.7 65% 78–74 ✗
Alabama State @ Colorado +6.4 162.3 76% 66–94 ✓
Georgia State @ Arizona State +12.5 134.2 86% 62–75 ✓
North Alabama @ Clemson +33.3 145.2 90% 61–81 ✓
Oregon State @ Oregon +7.5 132.4 72% 75–87 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Portland State +6.1 141.8 76% 80–93 ✓
Michigan State @ Kentucky +8.4 144.3 72% 83–66 ✗
American University @ Rutgers +17.4 144.8 89% 71–80 ✓
Vermont @ Buffalo +5.0 147.7 67% 90–94 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.