Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–10 on winners spread MAE 8.8 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Prairie View A&M @ Florida A&M +5.4 141.3 75% 66–75 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +3.3 143.8 70% 58–71 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -2.7 134.1 41% 58–51 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +9.4 152.5 83% 78–91 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado +2.9 146.1 69% 45–72 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +5.1 138.1 70% 64–61 ✗
Nicholls @ Lamar +0.1 136.8 46% 55–58 ✓
UCF @ Utah +1.8 153.9 54% 87–72 ✗
Idaho @ Montana +5.0 145.9 72% 55–78 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +4.7 133.4 69% 65–69 ✓
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -0.1 132.3 54% 60–66 ✗
Cincinnati @ Iowa State +6.2 135.0 75% 56–76 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +2.5 140.4 59% 64–61 ✗
South Carolina @ Arkansas +5.0 142.5 71% 68–72 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +5.9 126.1 70% 65–62 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State +1.5 137.4 56% 61–66 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +6.0 151.2 71% 88–71 ✗
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +7.6 151.8 79% 56–76 ✓
Colorado @ West Virginia +5.2 130.9 69% 67–60 ✗
Northwestern @ Minnesota -4.8 129.6 29% 72–64 ✓
Texas @ Vanderbilt +0.0 153.4 49% 79–72 ✗
Butler @ Providence -2.2 146.8 37% 75–69 ✓
Fresno State @ Nevada +11.4 139.6 83% 71–86 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts -0.1 141.2 47% 78–71 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +12.7 134.9 88% 54–63 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +13.1 142.2 88% 70–77 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +4.4 142.0 67% 64–78 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +3.9 156.1 68% 77–70 ✗
UTEP @ Liberty +7.9 140.1 79% 60–81 ✓
DePaul @ Georgetown +2.6 142.9 63% 71–67 ✗
LSU @ Mississippi State +5.1 147.4 73% 62–91 ✓
Navy @ American University +3.3 133.6 67% 52–74 ✓
Air Force @ UNLV +12.3 132.6 86% 59–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Baylor +5.2 133.4 70% 56–70 ✓
California @ Stanford +3.2 143.5 66% 73–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.