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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–9 on winners
spread MAE 6.0
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.2 | 137.4 | 67% | 76–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.9 | 140.5 | 88% | 63–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 137.6 | 60% | 62–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 155.4 | 44% | 97–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 134.2 | 75% | 56–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 140.2 | 84% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 144.4 | 68% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 130.2 | 85% | 55–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 146.1 | 60% | 81–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.6 | 151.0 | 81% | 94–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 151.1 | 77% | 53–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 148.0 | 59% | 91–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.2 | 145.1 | 80% | 75–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 150.5 | 30% | 86–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 151.1 | 80% | 67–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 131.3 | 65% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.8 | 144.1 | 88% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 147.6 | 82% | 57–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 141.5 | 60% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 150.4 | 43% | 92–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 138.9 | 64% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 149.0 | 56% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 159.0 | 40% | 85–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 135.7 | 50% | 84–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 140.2 | 68% | 75–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 140.2 | 72% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 143.0 | 45% | 89–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 147.4 | 28% | 68–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 150.9 | 84% | 52–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 145.3 | 77% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 128.6 | 87% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 143.3 | 68% | 94–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.6 | 148.7 | 73% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 143.3 | 76% | 81–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 134.1 | 45% | 62–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 153.4 | 62% | 91–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.1 | 145.1 | 42% | 65–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 163.6 | 75% | 94–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 142.2 | 80% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 133.4 | 49% | 77–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 140.9 | 67% | 74–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 137.7 | 80% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 142.5 | 69% | 75–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 144.7 | 81% | 81–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 142.9 | 81% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 161.2 | 65% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.