The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–9 on winners spread MAE 10.2 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
DePaul @ LSU +6.6 147.5 76% 63–96 ✓
Little Rock @ Southern Illinois +14.4 144.8 86% 65–74 ✓
Milwaukee @ Akron +19.6 157.7 90% 81–105 ✓
UAlbany @ Fordham +2.7 125.3 61% 68–88 ✓
Sacramento State @ Pacific +14.9 139.4 87% 54–68 ✓
California Baptist @ Oregon State -4.8 136.5 28% 75–69 ✓
Le Moyne @ Ball State -7.2 133.0 22% 85–96 ✗
Merrimack @ La Salle +0.7 132.0 54% 66–60 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Princeton +1.8 142.8 57% 60–58 ✗
Siena @ Maine -6.6 123.1 23% 64–60 ✓
App State @ UNC Asheville +2.8 133.2 61% 55–67 ✓
South Alabama @ UTSA +0.9 137.3 47% 82–58 ✗
Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +0.1 145.5 47% 70–64 ✗
Old Dominion @ William & Mary +14.2 150.5 87% 75–88 ✓
Stetson @ Robert Morris +11.5 142.2 86% 62–80 ✓
New Hampshire @ Fairfield +11.3 136.7 86% 68–72 ✓
Stonehill @ Quinnipiac +11.5 142.5 85% 62–76 ✓
Yale @ Vermont -1.8 155.5 41% 77–74 ✓
Cornell @ Bucknell -0.6 152.5 46% 101–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Lafayette -3.1 138.9 33% 88–74 ✓
Hofstra @ Pennsylvania +2.2 145.2 58% 77–60 ✗
Wyoming @ Texas Tech +7.5 141.9 73% 72–76 ✓
Mercyhurst @ West Virginia +10.2 128.3 81% 38–70 ✓
Fordham @ Colgate +3.5 132.5 65% 62–72 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Coastal Carolina +8.7 135.7 78% 60–67 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Florida Atlantic +7.9 147.5 76% 70–65 ✗
Belmont @ Charleston -1.5 142.4 38% 96–73 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ North Texas +7.1 134.3 77% 69–72 ✓
Longwood @ American University +5.1 147.3 69% 66–92 ✓
Presbyterian @ The Citadel -5.7 130.3 25% 69–41 ✓
UC Irvine @ San José State +2.4 127.8 55% 72–63 ✗
San Diego @ Long Beach State +2.4 139.7 56% 72–76 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Fresno State +7.4 139.6 78% 76–71 ✗
Coppin State @ Loyola Maryland +11.8 137.5 86% 84–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.