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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–22 on winners spread MAE 9.9 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Miami @ Georgetown -7.4 145.5 28% 78–65 ✓
Wichita State @ Western Kentucky -2.2 147.0 42% 70–75 ✗
Stanford @ Saint Louis +5.8 151.1 76% 78–77 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Clemson +20.5 140.7 90% 56–92 ✓
Georgia Tech @ DePaul -1.6 135.1 40% 61–75 ✗
SMU @ Mississippi State -4.5 154.1 33% 87–81 ✓
Ohio State @ Pittsburgh -2.5 139.8 36% 66–67 ✗
Colgate @ UAlbany -8.1 139.0 23% 69–67 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana +9.7 138.7 83% 51–45 ✗
Sam Houston @ Idaho +0.4 146.6 51% 94–68 ✗
BYU @ Dayton -9.9 147.7 20% 83–79 ✓
Minnesota @ Santa Clara +8.8 133.9 81% 75–86 ✓
LSU @ Drake -11.7 148.9 17% 71–62 ✓
Stony Brook @ Loyola Marymount +8.4 134.5 80% 71–68 ✗
North Dakota @ Hawai'i +14.1 137.1 87% 55–92 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Indiana +19.8 144.5 91% 56–100 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Navy +4.7 131.1 68% 69–65 ✗
Alcorn State @ Louisiana Tech +4.5 130.5 67% 58–83 ✓
Manhattan @ Army +2.8 149.4 61% 78–81 ✓
VMI @ UCF +21.8 153.5 91% 57–82 ✓
Boston University @ Northern Kentucky +6.8 147.4 75% 65–74 ✓
Maine @ Longwood +1.4 131.4 56% 61–65 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Niagara +4.7 142.1 67% 70–66 ✗
Dartmouth @ Saint Peter's +9.6 146.9 82% 87–61 ✗
Lehigh @ Texas State +1.8 130.2 58% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ Georgia Southern +3.0 137.3 61% 62–80 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Nebraska +15.9 150.6 88% 63–72 ✓
Southern @ Northwestern State +2.4 159.7 54% 75–73 ✗
Merrimack @ Hofstra +4.2 135.1 69% 58–78 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia +22.8 152.4 91% 81–123 ✓
Western Carolina @ High Point +19.3 152.2 91% 73–93 ✓
James Madison @ George Mason +15.0 142.7 88% 66–82 ✓
Delaware State @ UMBC +11.9 130.8 86% 57–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Le Moyne -2.3 141.3 40% 79–83 ✗
Southern Utah @ Stetson +4.7 142.6 68% 70–68 ✗
Morehead State @ IU Indianapolis +3.9 159.3 67% 80–85 ✓
Bryant @ Harvard +10.2 132.5 84% 53–56 ✓
Lipscomb @ Southeast Missouri State +2.7 145.6 59% 88–77 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington +0.4 135.7 46% 61–66 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Wilmington +24.2 142.7 91% 62–88 ✓
Western Michigan @ Valparaiso +2.4 136.2 57% 55–84 ✓
Norfolk State @ Arizona +19.2 135.5 90% 61–98 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Drake -1.2 133.4 43% 74–84 ✗
South Carolina State @ Winthrop +23.6 146.1 91% 79–101 ✓
Kansas City @ Weber State +11.9 147.7 86% 61–82 ✓
Montana State @ Utah State +16.3 143.0 88% 81–84 ✓
Central Arkansas @ East Tennessee State +15.6 141.4 87% 57–80 ✓
Mercer @ Elon +6.3 159.1 73% 91–84 ✗
Siena @ American University +2.8 139.9 60% 59–55 ✗
Howard @ Mount St. Mary's -0.5 140.3 44% 75–79 ✗
Air Force @ South Dakota -1.7 140.3 41% 63–80 ✗
Seattle U @ UC Santa Barbara -6.3 144.0 25% 71–74 ✗
Ball State @ Lafayette +1.0 136.3 48% 37–55 ✓
La Salle @ Pennsylvania +6.9 140.6 76% 71–73 ✓
Wofford @ Eastern Kentucky +0.6 146.7 51% 83–77 ✗
UC Riverside @ Utah Tech +2.1 141.2 56% 69–77 ✓
Pepperdine @ Cal State Fullerton +4.0 152.0 67% 69–83 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Penn State +13.8 153.0 88% 59–90 ✓
Buffalo @ Canisius -5.1 138.8 24% 71–53 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.