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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
24–11 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+4.5 | 143.4 | 71% | 66–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 143.0 | 60% | 58–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 136.3 | 42% | 58–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 153.0 | 82% | 78–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 143.2 | 67% | 45–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 139.5 | 67% | 64–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 136.9 | 49% | 55–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 154.7 | 60% | 87–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 144.0 | 73% | 55–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 132.6 | 68% | 65–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 131.6 | 50% | 60–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 135.5 | 75% | 56–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 139.3 | 51% | 64–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 140.8 | 67% | 68–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 128.3 | 71% | 65–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.0 | 134.7 | 54% | 61–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 152.8 | 64% | 88–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.9 | 149.9 | 78% | 56–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 130.9 | 59% | 67–60 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.5 | 129.1 | 30% | 72–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 149.9 | 46% | 79–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 145.5 | 41% | 75–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 138.9 | 86% | 71–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 144.6 | 54% | 78–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.5 | 134.2 | 87% | 54–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.5 | 140.1 | 88% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 143.4 | 70% | 64–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 155.2 | 62% | 77–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 137.8 | 73% | 60–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 142.4 | 66% | 71–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 148.4 | 75% | 62–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 135.1 | 65% | 52–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 130.9 | 87% | 59–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 135.4 | 76% | 56–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 143.3 | 60% | 73–78 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.