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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–50 on winners spread MAE 10.5 137 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Dayton @ George Washington	+4.7	151.6	69%	68–66	✗
Rider @ Iona	+10.2	143.5	87%	58–80	✓
Brown @ Columbia	+6.3	137.5	71%	62–80	✓
Siena @ Fairfield	-0.1	137.5	53%	58–72	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Sacred Heart	+1.8	143.6	61%	69–77	✓
Merrimack @ Canisius	-8.8	131.3	17%	62–67	✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's	+7.9	144.3	81%	65–75	✓
Harvard @ Princeton	-1.4	132.1	43%	58–56	✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania	+4.9	148.6	75%	71–80	✓
UL Monroe @ Troy	+17.0	157.1	90%	65–80	✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State	-0.1	145.4	48%	81–73	✓
Michigan @ Illinois	+1.7	163.4	60%	84–70	✗
Akron @ Kent State	-3.1	162.8	44%	92–70	✓
App State @ Texas State	-0.1	137.3	55%	57–60	✗
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison	+5.9	142.4	74%	69–68	✗
Southern Miss @ South Alabama	+6.9	143.4	78%	68–55	✗
Georgia Southern @ Marshall	+8.8	163.3	83%	99–82	✗
Louisiana @ Arkansas State	+14.2	141.7	88%	58–81	✓
Colorado @ Houston	+15.0	137.9	88%	62–102	✓
Virginia @ Duke	+12.1	146.3	86%	51–77	✓
Seton Hall @ UConn	+14.9	135.9	88%	67–71	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Rhode Island	+3.4	135.8	69%	61–55	✗
Iowa @ Penn State	-10.3	135.8	17%	69–71	✗
NC State @ Notre Dame	-5.1	151.3	37%	90–96	✗
Florida State @ Georgia Tech	-3.6	156.2	32%	80–71	✓
Boston University @ American University	+2.6	145.1	62%	68–65	✗
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross	+2.4	145.4	63%	76–62	✗
Fordham @ VCU	+15.7	140.2	88%	63–82	✓
Army @ Lafayette	+2.8	145.6	63%	77–83	✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris	+12.3	156.2	86%	64–83	✓
Chicago State @ Wagner	+5.1	134.7	70%	61–80	✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut	+9.0	148.0	84%	64–69	✓
Le Moyne @ New Haven	-0.1	130.1	55%	59–66	✗
Missouri @ Mississippi State	+0.4	154.4	52%	88–64	✗
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee	+3.5	144.9	73%	85–86	✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell	-1.3	141.7	49%	84–60	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University	+9.7	135.1	84%	60–74	✓
Georgetown @ Xavier	+4.0	151.8	68%	84–91	✓
Louisville @ Clemson	-0.9	146.6	49%	75–80	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis	-1.0	155.6	50%	87–81	✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh	+3.4	142.2	68%	79–89	✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason	+5.9	139.3	75%	58–71	✓
Oklahoma State @ Cincinnati	+7.3	152.8	78%	68–91	✓
Oregon @ Northwestern	+5.0	141.9	63%	62–63	✓
UCLA @ Minnesota	-1.3	135.4	40%	73–78	✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate	+10.4	148.8	86%	61–71	✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville	+4.7	148.1	72%	92–75	✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico	+4.8	148.7	75%	76–81	✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota	-3.1	149.5	40%	70–75	✗
Youngstown State @ Green Bay	+0.1	145.0	53%	63–85	✓
Massachusetts @ Bowling Green	+2.9	149.3	67%	62–81	✓
Central Michigan @ Buffalo	+6.2	149.1	72%	75–70	✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill	-1.9	135.2	39%	75–72	✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany	+4.1	137.4	69%	61–84	✓
Maine @ Binghamton	-2.5	129.7	40%	67–74	✗
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T	-4.4	157.9	41%	91–88	✓
Campbell @ Towson	+4.1	135.8	70%	67–71	✓
The Citadel @ Wofford	+12.8	143.3	87%	93–90	✗
VMI @ Chattanooga	+11.8	148.4	86%	79–86	✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas	+4.3	163.4	69%	79–84	✓
North Alabama @ West Georgia	+3.6	147.1	63%	63–75	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson	-4.5	149.6	34%	63–78	✗
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine	-4.3	151.0	34%	97–111	✗
Tennessee State @ UT Martin	+3.4	140.3	67%	67–42	✗
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky	+1.5	152.9	60%	77–91	✓
Boston College @ Miami	+12.6	143.8	87%	54–76	✓
Radford @ Longwood	+1.0	154.0	58%	74–90	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland	+7.6	157.9	79%	95–89	✗
Elon @ Monmouth	+2.6	149.1	68%	57–73	✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State	+10.6	153.9	86%	61–82	✓
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech	+2.0	142.9	65%	84–76	✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky	+8.3	143.2	81%	65–97	✓
Utah @ Arizona State	+6.7	148.2	77%	60–73	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern	+1.6	151.9	53%	82–79	✗
South Carolina @ Georgia	+13.5	163.5	87%	68–87	✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State	+6.8	143.3	76%	82–73	✗
Nebraska @ USC	-4.5	146.5	31%	82–67	✓
Wisconsin @ Washington	+0.8	152.3	51%	90–73	✗
Air Force @ Wyoming	+18.0	141.2	90%	62–66	✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville	-5.8	139.0	26%	79–80	✗
San Diego @ Portland	+2.5	145.4	65%	74–87	✓
Howard @ Morgan State	-8.0	144.6	19%	84–59	✓
Richmond @ Loyola Chicago	-5.3	143.3	33%	66–69	✗
Presbyterian @ Winthrop	+10.7	143.2	86%	70–74	✓
Pittsburgh @ California	+7.0	142.5	78%	72–56	✗
Colgate @ Navy	+7.9	139.8	78%	69–85	✓
Toledo @ Ohio	+0.2	151.7	56%	79–67	✗
NJIT @ Bryant	+0.1	134.7	51%	52–69	✓
Northeastern @ Hampton	+2.8	143.7	60%	65–76	✓
Portland State @ Montana	+0.9	143.0	53%	68–74	✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho	+1.2	149.8	59%	76–67	✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington	+9.5	143.6	82%	57–88	✓
Lipscomb @ Eastern Kentucky	-1.6	155.3	47%	80–77	✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock	+5.2	139.3	71%	70–89	✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley	+13.7	135.0	87%	67–74	✓
Kansas @ Arizona	+11.0	153.0	85%	61–84	✓
Texas @ Texas A&M	+3.3	161.0	66%	76–70	✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State	-0.6	132.1	46%	74–60	✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+4.0	130.8	63%	57–69	✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer	-0.2	146.5	53%	76–82	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Houston Christian	-8.4	133.9	20%	77–56	✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois	-8.9	139.2	22%	91–69	✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+5.6	132.3	70%	50–77	✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois	+1.3	131.4	54%	79–43	✗
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls	+4.8	139.1	71%	60–68	✓
Norfolk State @ Coppin State	-7.8	136.1	22%	75–69	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State	+7.3	138.3	77%	73–89	✓
Colorado State @ San José State	-7.0	143.1	27%	85–73	✓
Lamar @ Incarnate Word	-0.8	134.5	45%	60–72	✗
Delaware @ Kennesaw State	+10.2	147.6	84%	82–90	✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State	+13.5	151.7	88%	63–96	✓
BYU @ West Virginia	-2.8	139.8	45%	71–79	✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M	+4.7	152.6	74%	51–72	✓
Providence @ Creighton	+3.9	165.3	70%	79–76	✗
Furman @ Western Carolina	-1.0	148.8	51%	67–86	✗
East Texas A&M @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+10.8	143.4	86%	55–63	✓
Missouri State @ Sam Houston	+10.1	150.0	84%	81–86	✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern	+5.3	152.6	75%	57–82	✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M	+1.1	140.9	56%	89–88	✗
Syracuse @ Wake Forest	+4.4	151.7	74%	83–88	✓
Florida A&M @ Grambling	+4.0	135.8	70%	66–59	✗
San Francisco @ Pacific	+2.7	139.3	64%	72–61	✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton	+1.6	139.2	59%	61–82	✓
SMU @ Stanford	-1.6	151.4	52%	75–95	✗
Brown @ Cornell	+9.3	153.1	80%	80–86	✓
Yale @ Columbia	-5.0	143.0	29%	60–54	✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania	+1.2	131.5	60%	61–64	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford	+8.5	155.2	82%	78–87	✓
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans	-8.2	147.2	19%	66–63	✓
Weber State @ Idaho State	+1.3	150.0	60%	83–73	✗
Oklahoma @ LSU	+3.1	157.2	66%	83–67	✗
Jacksonville @ North Florida	-0.5	148.3	42%	85–61	✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State	-2.3	140.4	42%	81–78	✓
Alabama @ Tennessee	+4.4	173.6	65%	71–69	✗
TCU @ Kansas State	-2.7	151.8	38%	77–68	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+12.6	145.6	87%	70–69	✗
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+7.1	133.0	74%	59–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.