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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–19 on winners spread MAE 11.4 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Gardner-Webb @ Wofford	+0.0	142.9	50%	64–88	✓
Morehead State @ Marshall	+16.1	144.6	93%	77–80	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Campbell	+5.0	123.2	67%	58–57	✗
Illinois State @ Belmont	+9.0	157.8	79%	97–99	✓
Coppin State @ Wagner	+12.7	111.2	88%	52–65	✓
Furman @ Florida Gulf Coast	+1.5	122.3	55%	76–73	✗
Bellarmine @ Western Carolina	+5.9	154.0	71%	74–86	✓
Monmouth @ Lehigh	+2.7	151.5	60%	63–90	✓
Cornell @ Colgate	+1.5	149.1	55%	84–57	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Bucknell	-7.1	142.9	26%	64–47	✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts	+4.9	135.8	67%	73–69	✗
George Washington @ American University	-3.0	141.3	39%	71–81	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham	+12.8	158.3	88%	75–84	✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris	+9.4	129.8	80%	72–58	✗
Tennessee Tech @ North Alabama	+8.1	151.4	77%	59–82	✓
Rider @ Fairfield	+0.0	126.0	50%	75–78	✓
Georgia Southern @ VCU	+17.3	145.9	94%	54–89	✓
Alabama @ North Carolina	+5.5	185.4	69%	94–79	✗
Virginia @ Florida	+18.7	128.8	96%	69–87	✓
Alcorn State @ Wichita State	+25.9	144.4	99%	54–78	✓
Marquette @ Iowa State	+1.3	156.8	55%	70–81	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Memphis	+14.1	154.7	90%	71–81	✓
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa	-3.0	158.4	39%	76–55	✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC	+5.3	157.4	69%	83–56	✗
Central Arkansas @ Little Rock	+12.7	138.6	88%	57–63	✓
Montana State @ Omaha	-3.8	144.8	37%	76–65	✓
Idaho State @ South Dakota	+1.1	161.4	54%	80–94	✓
Northern Arizona @ Oral Roberts	+2.4	149.7	59%	76–83	✓
Idaho @ Kansas City	+3.8	137.8	64%	82–77	✗
St. Thomas @ Northern Colorado	+6.4	160.4	72%	87–75	✗
Michigan State @ Minnesota	-4.9	125.9	33%	90–72	✓
NJIT @ Seton Hall	+15.8	110.9	92%	56–67	✓
Kansas @ Creighton	-8.3	152.6	23%	63–76	✗
Abilene Christian @ New Mexico State	+4.4	134.8	66%	78–70	✗
Wyoming @ Utah State	+24.6	148.5	99%	67–70	✓
San José State @ New Mexico	+21.1	156.3	97%	77–83	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Colorado State	+5.9	142.1	70%	54–83	✓
Sacramento State @ Denver	-1.4	138.4	45%	59–80	✗
South Dakota State @ Montana	-1.4	152.4	45%	67–71	✗
North Dakota State @ Weber State	+1.2	150.0	54%	77–73	✗
North Dakota @ Eastern Washington	+12.6	147.5	87%	81–87	✓
Pittsburgh @ Mississippi State	-0.4	156.7	49%	57–90	✗
Texas @ NC State	+0.1	141.5	50%	63–59	✗
Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech	-5.0	145.3	32%	80–64	✓
DePaul @ Texas Tech	+8.8	153.1	79%	62–76	✓
Auburn @ Duke	+6.0	143.1	71%	78–84	✓
Portland State @ Seattle U	+15.5	158.6	92%	74–91	✓
Oregon @ USC	-8.5	147.0	22%	68–60	✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State	-9.9	144.4	18%	84–62	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lipscomb	+15.6	144.1	92%	60–78	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy	-6.1	153.2	29%	78–79	✗
Alabama State @ Southern Miss	-1.2	159.7	46%	64–81	✗
Purdue @ Penn State	+5.7	153.7	70%	70–81	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.