And of all my friends, you've been the best to me. / Soon will be the day when I repay you handsomely. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–18 on winners spread MAE 8.7 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Winthrop @ Longwood +3.9 164.5 64% 85–59 ✗
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic -2.4 137.3 42% 71–61 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University +6.8 115.0 73% 47–60 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.6 143.2 63% 69–82 ✓
Chicago State @ Mercyhurst +7.0 137.1 74% 68–90 ✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut +17.4 143.9 94% 75–84 ✓
Maine @ New Hampshire -9.9 134.5 18% 73–66 ✓
Vermont @ NJIT -5.5 121.0 31% 71–61 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay +3.4 144.5 62% 71–76 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne +9.5 151.6 81% 79–74 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell -0.7 140.3 47% 79–60 ✓
Elon @ Monmouth -2.7 142.8 40% 76–79 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Northeastern +10.2 147.3 82% 55–69 ✓
Hampton @ Drexel +3.9 129.9 64% 52–53 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +5.6 146.5 70% 73–88 ✓
Delaware @ Charleston +9.3 164.3 80% 84–94 ✓
Hofstra @ Stony Brook -5.1 130.0 32% 56–59 ✗
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro +3.4 142.0 62% 75–63 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Florida International -4.2 143.9 35% 61–76 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +8.2 133.3 77% 55–59 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +7.1 143.2 74% 66–71 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State -2.0 127.2 43% 52–67 ✗
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -10.7 156.8 16% 77–69 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas +12.2 164.7 87% 71–86 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City +7.7 134.8 76% 56–64 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +8.8 141.3 79% 82–69 ✗
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +6.7 146.4 73% 63–79 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +1.7 137.3 56% 83–68 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +9.2 148.0 80% 55–64 ✓
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois -5.0 124.7 32% 60–71 ✗
Rutgers @ Michigan +12.5 156.4 87% 82–84 ✓
UAB @ Wichita State +1.7 160.6 56% 80–72 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho -0.1 149.2 50% 69–65 ✓
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +5.5 143.4 69% 66–64 ✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State +1.1 144.1 54% 76–82 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech +2.6 145.9 59% 82–75 ✗
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon +11.2 154.2 85% 71–85 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP +3.1 149.3 61% 80–73 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State +1.8 137.5 57% 71–66 ✗
San Diego @ Washington State +15.8 156.6 92% 86–93 ✓
Montana @ Sacramento State -7.4 142.1 25% 60–54 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State +2.5 140.1 59% 52–69 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -6.7 149.1 27% 77–71 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara +8.2 160.6 77% 77–96 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton -18.5 137.4 5% 76–51 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State -2.6 140.2 41% 88–87 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland -0.4 157.6 49% 67–87 ✗
California Baptist @ Seattle U +3.4 140.7 62% 48–72 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount -12.9 128.0 12% 58–55 ✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i -0.7 143.6 47% 82–76 ✓
Brown @ Harvard -0.5 140.2 48% 59–52 ✓
Yale @ Dartmouth -8.7 153.2 21% 72–67 ✓
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan -3.3 146.3 38% 73–84 ✗
Iona @ Niagara +0.5 138.6 52% 65–63 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.