All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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59–25 on winners spread MAE 9.3 84 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +6.4 137.3 72% 70–67 ✗
Portland @ Kent State +15.0 134.5 85% 57–76 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Davidson +11.9 150.9 83% 72–73 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Indiana +12.7 148.4 86% 57–76 ✓
Georgetown @ West Virginia +11.8 146.0 81% 60–73 ✓
Iona @ Sacred Heart +6.0 140.1 74% 59–83 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +2.7 140.2 64% 50–53 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Rider +3.8 134.8 65% 72–67 ✗
Merrimack @ Canisius -5.5 130.2 24% 60–52 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Georgia State +1.1 147.7 56% 81–77 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ UAB +14.4 162.3 86% 66–95 ✓
North Texas @ High Point -1.9 128.4 37% 71–76 ✗
Illinois @ Northwestern -6.3 144.7 35% 66–70 ✗
Kansas State @ St. John's +12.9 151.1 82% 71–88 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word +6.8 140.3 77% 53–65 ✓
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +7.2 151.1 79% 64–69 ✓
Clemson @ Miami -9.2 142.2 20% 65–55 ✓
Boston College @ Wake Forest +5.4 132.3 69% 66–72 ✓
Princeton @ Furman +6.6 137.2 75% 63–69 ✓
Rutgers @ Ohio State +14.1 156.3 85% 66–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Michigan State +3.9 148.0 71% 52–89 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +3.7 153.2 68% 96–83 ✗
Providence @ Rhode Island +8.3 141.2 78% 63–69 ✓
South Florida @ Loyola Chicago +15.0 147.2 87% 72–74 ✓
UMBC @ Towson +9.7 138.6 78% 84–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Boston University +1.8 136.6 56% 74–80 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -3.2 141.2 42% 80–72 ✓
Queens University @ VMI +5.7 144.6 63% 81–78 ✗
Wisconsin @ Marquette +10.1 152.0 76% 74–88 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech -12.3 139.9 16% 64–59 ✓
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina +12.8 162.7 83% 65–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Drexel +7.9 138.0 74% 47–60 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina A&T -1.4 145.0 39% 67–55 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Gardner-Webb +8.3 144.6 77% 78–77 ✗
Marshall @ UNC Wilmington +5.3 142.0 73% 69–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Evansville +0.2 148.0 44% 79–65 ✗
Southern Utah @ Arizona +15.4 150.6 87% 66–102 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ West Georgia +0.2 142.5 53% 73–78 ✓
Navy @ NJIT +0.7 139.4 45% 64–69 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Delaware State -0.2 140.3 49% 77–80 ✗
Vermont @ Yale +11.8 138.2 83% 50–65 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan +5.1 151.2 66% 83–85 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Holy Cross +3.1 132.9 58% 69–56 ✗
Morgan State @ Bowling Green +9.6 147.0 77% 81–102 ✓
South Dakota @ Northern Arizona +1.0 153.8 56% 82–95 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls +6.1 142.4 75% 70–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Dayton +19.4 150.4 89% 62–86 ✓
Tulane @ George Mason +17.6 142.4 86% 64–76 ✓
UTSA @ Arkansas +23.1 153.0 91% 60–75 ✓
East Carolina @ South Carolina +10.9 140.1 82% 68–75 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State -1.3 126.3 42% 50–66 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis +1.2 139.1 51% 66–64 ✗
Virginia @ SMU +12.4 135.6 85% 51–63 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Southern Illinois +4.0 147.9 70% 70–73 ✓
Stony Brook @ Air Force +4.4 127.9 72% 61–69 ✓
Southern @ Tulsa +0.7 142.1 55% 70–66 ✗
Lafayette @ Mercyhurst -0.3 133.9 43% 77–73 ✓
Montana @ St. Thomas +10.4 151.3 79% 81–88 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Western Carolina +6.7 153.3 63% 74–68 ✗
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +3.4 141.7 62% 83–61 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Belmont +3.7 158.3 68% 79–82 ✓
Utah Valley @ James Madison +7.2 142.8 75% 61–78 ✓
Seattle U @ UTEP +0.7 136.1 55% 72–88 ✓
Florida State @ NC State +1.2 142.9 53% 74–84 ✓
Stanford @ California +4.8 151.3 62% 89–81 ✗
Washington State @ Boise State +7.7 150.0 77% 74–69 ✗
Morehead State @ Ohio +10.5 146.8 82% 76–88 ✓
Omaha @ Sacramento State +2.1 134.2 50% 70–60 ✗
Buffalo @ St. Bonaventure +20.6 139.5 90% 55–65 ✓
George Washington @ Old Dominion -7.7 145.0 23% 78–70 ✓
UNLV @ Creighton +10.6 142.0 82% 65–83 ✓
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State -3.8 134.6 35% 68–76 ✗
Villanova @ Temple -4.4 143.2 29% 94–65 ✓
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian -2.8 132.3 42% 64–57 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.1 137.4 70% 48–67 ✓
Grambling @ Pepperdine +0.4 138.3 54% 57–85 ✓
Idaho @ Oregon State +21.9 136.9 90% 62–78 ✓
Denver @ Portland State +7.3 156.3 70% 68–67 ✗
Butler @ Houston +13.0 133.1 85% 51–79 ✓
Texas Southern @ Sam Houston +11.0 151.6 83% 71–87 ✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley +9.8 148.4 80% 84–52 ✗
USC @ Washington +4.8 137.0 75% 85–61 ✗
Binghamton @ Le Moyne +4.8 143.3 67% 72–62 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +18.8 138.6 89% 57–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.