If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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92–33 on winners spread MAE 8.2 125 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Villanova @ Marquette +10.7 142.7 82% 74–87 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis -1.2 132.1 40% 64–74 ✗
Wagner @ Mercyhurst +2.0 126.6 62% 66–71 ✓
Chicago State @ Stonehill +9.1 132.7 87% 73–75 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne -7.0 138.3 21% 93–70 ✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky -3.5 138.5 34% 79–59 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio +0.5 142.1 56% 59–61 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Dayton +5.2 143.9 71% 72–77 ✓
Michigan @ Purdue +4.3 144.0 69% 64–91 ✓
Penn State @ Iowa +2.0 165.9 59% 75–76 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +8.8 133.4 80% 61–75 ✓
UCLA @ Washington -5.4 141.0 33% 65–60 ✓
SMU @ NC State -3.8 145.0 36% 63–57 ✓
Campbell @ Hofstra +4.3 130.8 62% 69–67 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook +1.1 142.3 52% 74–89 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse -8.5 151.2 19% 77–73 ✓
Howard @ Norfolk State +12.2 149.2 85% 75–92 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +1.3 133.4 52% 68–78 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina -5.0 140.0 28% 65–60 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +4.4 146.8 74% 55–64 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State -5.6 151.2 28% 74–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Boston University -0.2 131.9 48% 82–85 ✗
UMBC @ Vermont +3.2 141.6 62% 80–63 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +10.6 143.3 85% 50–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ Queens University -0.1 140.7 44% 87–77 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ VMI -7.4 139.5 24% 60–57 ✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel +2.3 134.0 60% 80–78 ✗
Marist @ Canisius -8.0 133.8 21% 70–47 ✓
Siena @ Iona -0.0 138.7 53% 68–72 ✗
Michigan State @ Rutgers -4.8 149.7 27% 81–74 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton +15.6 136.1 88% 54–79 ✓
Iowa State @ Arizona State -5.2 144.8 31% 76–61 ✓
Winthrop @ High Point +9.1 161.0 83% 62–84 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle -1.0 151.1 52% 64–70 ✗
Saint Louis @ George Washington +2.6 142.2 64% 61–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Bradley +12.3 143.7 84% 57–61 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +1.4 141.4 56% 70–65 ✗
Cornell @ Princeton +3.3 154.6 66% 85–76 ✗
Harvard @ Yale +14.5 143.0 88% 55–84 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania -2.1 151.2 41% 78–93 ✗
Dartmouth @ Brown +3.6 146.3 59% 84–83 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +12.4 145.6 86% 80–97 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +11.0 148.0 86% 69–83 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris +0.5 137.2 58% 71–73 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -6.7 153.8 25% 91–80 ✓
Delaware @ Drexel +4.0 142.6 70% 54–67 ✓
Monmouth @ William & Mary +9.3 153.4 78% 73–78 ✓
North Florida @ West Georgia -4.5 157.7 38% 72–92 ✗
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -14.6 142.0 15% 68–55 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Akron +4.7 156.3 68% 75–102 ✓
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan +6.0 153.3 76% 77–90 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +9.9 138.5 84% 64–75 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Niagara -0.4 143.2 45% 86–77 ✓
Boston College @ North Carolina +17.4 148.4 90% 96–102 ✓
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -2.0 162.3 46% 69–74 ✗
Texas A&M @ Texas +1.7 142.2 60% 69–70 ✓
Tulane @ Rice +0.4 141.5 51% 82–71 ✗
New Mexico @ UNLV -2.8 147.6 32% 75–73 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +12.4 153.5 87% 54–80 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona +15.5 148.0 89% 63–78 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC +7.2 150.6 77% 89–85 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine +0.9 144.5 43% 81–76 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +1.6 142.5 57% 80–72 ✗
Marshall @ Georgia Southern -2.8 150.0 39% 71–67 ✓
App State @ UL Monroe -11.4 128.6 14% 66–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +8.9 149.3 80% 65–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +14.0 138.4 88% 66–81 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +11.8 141.6 84% 59–89 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern -3.2 154.3 38% 69–61 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston +0.9 153.1 49% 75–66 ✗
Oregon @ Minnesota -5.1 141.6 31% 69–77 ✗
TCU @ UCF +3.3 145.0 54% 58–85 ✓
Temple @ UTSA -2.3 156.1 41% 79–88 ✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso +6.4 139.4 75% 78–68 ✗
Drake @ Missouri State -9.3 125.4 16% 69–62 ✓
Belmont @ Murray State +3.8 153.7 65% 95–77 ✗
Utah State @ Air Force -16.0 137.7 13% 87–58 ✓
Colgate @ American University +0.2 136.0 49% 77–81 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +8.8 138.0 81% 62–68 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State -3.5 132.2 31% 87–81 ✓
DePaul @ Butler +5.6 147.4 72% 69–86 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia State -5.7 143.4 27% 86–79 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky -2.3 143.5 43% 77–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian +0.6 141.3 54% 79–76 ✗
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State +5.4 143.3 74% 71–63 ✗
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's +3.0 148.2 65% 74–64 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama State +7.2 156.1 77% 63–66 ✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.7 145.3 25% 73–66 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +5.8 148.3 79% 64–80 ✓
Duke @ Wake Forest -10.8 134.0 15% 63–56 ✓
Radford @ Presbyterian -1.2 139.5 38% 82–69 ✓
Baylor @ Utah -2.1 141.0 36% 76–61 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State -0.6 141.7 45% 81–86 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.5 150.3 73% 57–61 ✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +6.2 142.0 76% 63–86 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -1.0 145.8 44% 79–74 ✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois -7.4 145.1 29% 66–76 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +3.8 146.3 67% 89–85 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois -4.2 132.4 35% 72–51 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +3.6 133.9 67% 54–65 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois -1.8 139.4 39% 64–60 ✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central -2.3 145.6 39% 77–82 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State +4.0 136.8 60% 65–64 ✗
Little Rock @ Lindenwood -3.2 136.3 33% 78–46 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia Tech -9.5 135.9 17% 72–57 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +1.5 139.1 60% 59–76 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington -4.8 149.8 32% 67–62 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly +3.7 149.6 71% 69–78 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +13.7 158.7 87% 82–87 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M -4.9 148.8 25% 82–78 ✓
McNeese @ UT Rio Grande Valley -7.6 142.6 22% 93–63 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri +2.4 143.5 63% 75–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State -3.5 134.5 32% 60–73 ✗
Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin -0.6 129.3 42% 57–54 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond -2.5 139.0 43% 72–66 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans -2.8 143.5 32% 86–76 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +2.1 131.6 57% 55–65 ✓
Santa Clara @ Oregon State +4.3 150.6 68% 69–83 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +11.9 166.8 87% 71–90 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +4.8 146.0 70% 61–77 ✓
Liberty @ Florida International -6.6 137.5 29% 82–59 ✓
Houston @ Kansas +0.1 129.3 39% 92–86 ✗
Notre Dame @ Virginia -0.1 129.3 50% 74–59 ✓
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -13.0 148.5 13% 83–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +0.6 143.2 53% 69–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.