And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–11 on winners spread MAE 8.5 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
BYU @ UConn -0.4 142.9 45% 84–86 ✗
Jackson State @ Louisiana Tech +8.0 135.1 78% 51–68 ✓
Oklahoma @ Nebraska +1.1 143.7 43% 99–105 ✓
Nevada @ Santa Clara +14.7 146.7 82% 83–98 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Wilmington +5.5 140.0 76% 60–73 ✓
Little Rock @ Ball State +14.8 136.2 88% 68–62 ✗
James Madison @ Long Island University +7.5 149.2 77% 79–88 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Dayton +19.7 148.8 87% 82–91 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Elon +15.4 152.9 86% 84–95 ✓
Southern Utah @ Omaha +13.0 146.3 85% 85–90 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Saint Louis +17.7 155.5 85% 64–78 ✓
Duquesne @ Villanova +15.0 154.8 86% 77–87 ✓
Belmont @ Oral Roberts +2.7 156.2 68% 83–60 ✗
Green Bay @ Minnesota +26.7 138.8 90% 65–72 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Pepperdine — — — 88–81 —
Portland @ Wyoming +9.5 148.9 85% 56–93 ✓
New Mexico @ New Mexico State — — — 68–76 —
Sam Houston @ Utah +10.4 158.1 80% 79–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Manhattan +10.7 150.5 84% 73–80 ✓
Utah Valley @ Fresno State +9.2 146.5 82% 74–75 ✓
Weber State @ UC Irvine +0.7 143.9 64% 70–79 ✓
Bradley @ San Francisco +3.8 138.8 63% 64–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Seattle U +6.9 130.9 76% 74–83 ✓
Utah Tech @ Hawai'i +20.4 146.5 87% 62–68 ✓
App State @ Dartmouth -0.9 133.2 39% 85–77 ✓
Wagner @ UMBC +10.6 141.4 80% 70–71 ✓
Wright State @ Kent State -1.8 153.9 40% 72–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Ohio State +3.7 149.4 69% 63–64 ✓
Stetson @ Western Carolina +6.7 146.9 62% 65–76 ✓
Bryant @ Valparaiso +5.8 142.1 68% 50–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Hampton +3.9 142.1 69% 67–61 ✗
South Florida @ Kennesaw State +4.0 162.2 59% 108–89 ✗
Samford @ Central Arkansas -3.4 150.0 34% 84–77 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Maine +6.9 130.6 83% 70–64 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Fairfield +11.4 136.4 81% 82–85 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Wake Forest +24.4 150.3 91% 75–109 ✓
Charlotte @ Virginia Tech +14.4 147.5 87% 76–84 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Oklahoma State +19.8 143.5 89% 69–85 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts +8.6 136.1 82% 77–84 ✓
Western Michigan @ South Dakota +1.5 154.8 60% 78–83 ✓
Radford @ Cleveland State -1.5 154.6 40% 82–87 ✗
Houston @ Auburn +1.6 136.4 65% 73–72 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky +14.5 152.1 86% 82–95 ✓
Presbyterian @ Sacramento State +6.4 136.4 70% 62–64 ✓
Lindenwood @ Alabama A&M +4.9 138.1 63% 65–74 ✓
Colorado State @ Loyola Chicago -10.5 151.8 29% 80–67 ✓
Harvard @ Marist +12.9 132.8 84% 56–54 ✗
UNLV @ Memphis +7.2 154.3 76% 92–78 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Indiana +33.3 146.9 91% 61–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Cincinnati +16.3 135.7 88% 55–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.