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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–14 on winners spread MAE 11.2 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Boston University @ New Hampshire -3.4 130.5 33% 82–88 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar +5.7 138.3 74% 57–49 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah +0.8 145.1 53% 85–91 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly +4.4 150.5 70% 88–84 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Villanova +19.6 144.8 89% 63–90 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Grand Canyon -6.0 146.3 28% 84–78 ✓
Florida State @ Houston +6.6 142.2 72% 67–82 ✓
Illinois @ Tennessee -0.2 149.6 45% 75–62 ✓
Ole Miss @ St. John's +17.7 151.2 88% 58–63 ✓
Montana @ North Dakota -0.9 148.8 50% 79–75 ✓
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota State +11.1 145.6 84% 68–69 ✓
Montana State @ Oral Roberts -6.2 146.2 28% 68–72 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Bradley +13.2 141.2 88% 55–84 ✓
Wichita State @ Northern Iowa +3.1 129.4 59% 74–69 ✗
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee -0.0 147.8 50% 72–74 ✗
Chicago State @ Illinois State +24.8 145.4 91% 53–95 ✓
South Dakota @ Northern Colorado +12.3 155.8 86% 87–89 ✓
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois -4.6 144.0 28% 82–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ DePaul +16.7 151.1 88% 72–76 ✓
Santa Clara @ New Mexico -5.5 147.8 37% 71–98 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +10.8 147.1 84% 84–109 ✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State -10.3 145.7 19% 80–74 ✓
Arkansas State @ Little Rock -7.7 143.1 25% 90–78 ✓
Auburn @ Arizona +12.0 156.6 83% 68–97 ✓
Oklahoma @ Arizona State -5.9 152.5 31% 70–86 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine +8.8 140.9 78% 71–85 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +12.8 153.7 86% 59–69 ✓
Air Force @ Navy +11.3 136.1 84% 56–61 ✓
Missouri @ Kansas +2.6 140.9 55% 60–80 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Indiana State +8.9 149.8 78% 55–77 ✓
Weber State @ St. Thomas +3.8 153.3 67% 65–88 ✓
Fairfield @ Merrimack +1.0 140.2 55% 63–74 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Northeastern +2.2 145.1 57% 56–73 ✓
UTSA @ Alabama +31.8 157.6 90% 55–97 ✓
Austin Peay @ UT Rio Grande Valley +2.3 146.6 56% 50–63 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Davidson -3.8 140.0 38% 70–61 ✓
Iona @ Sacred Heart -0.9 160.1 57% 81–69 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast +0.1 152.8 42% 81–76 ✗
Utah State @ Charlotte -5.6 142.3 29% 79–53 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +17.4 140.3 91% 58–72 ✓
UIC @ Yale +17.6 145.6 86% 66–80 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +3.7 134.8 68% 43–71 ✓
Canisius @ Siena +15.7 125.6 90% 52–74 ✓
Manhattan @ Marist +11.7 135.5 83% 68–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Radford +9.4 148.0 80% 56–89 ✓
LSU @ Texas Tech -1.2 150.3 49% 58–82 ✗
UL Monroe @ Stephen F. Austin +20.2 139.8 90% 76–96 ✓
Alabama State @ UT Martin +10.3 144.4 83% 64–74 ✓
Central Michigan @ Saint Louis +25.1 148.3 90% 65–107 ✓
San Francisco @ Mississippi State -0.6 147.7 49% 65–62 ✓
Towson @ UCF +11.8 143.4 77% 61–86 ✓
UNLV @ Stanford +15.2 163.6 88% 75–74 ✗
Hofstra @ Pittsburgh +3.1 136.8 61% 80–73 ✗
Belmont @ Middle Tennessee +3.7 149.1 62% 83–62 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +6.5 132.8 70% 76–68 ✗
Georgetown @ North Carolina +16.4 147.1 85% 61–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb +8.3 138.2 78% 58–92 ✓
Nevada @ Washington State -0.1 150.3 46% 78–64 ✓
Creighton @ Nebraska +8.0 149.1 78% 50–71 ✓
Green Bay @ Wright State +4.8 142.8 73% 58–86 ✓
Texas A&M @ SMU +1.1 158.8 50% 80–93 ✓
TCU @ North Texas -5.8 138.1 29% 65–55 ✓
Central Arkansas @ East Texas A&M +1.5 140.7 57% 68–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.