Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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89–37 on winners spread MAE 8.3 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Saint Louis +9.2 158.1 79% 75–88 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona +1.3 142.3 59% 64–72 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairfield +4.8 151.4 73% 68–78 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -0.3 134.1 47% 71–80 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +3.5 151.1 67% 86–91 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +5.0 153.9 71% 73–68 ✗
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's +4.7 131.3 64% 63–76 ✓
Canisius @ Rider +0.0 129.1 44% 72–66 ✗
Marist @ Manhattan -7.3 139.7 28% 84–70 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +12.2 149.3 86% 64–93 ✓
Siena @ Merrimack +3.4 131.3 65% 72–79 ✓
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) +11.3 153.1 82% 77–91 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss -12.1 146.5 15% 94–75 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +13.0 152.7 88% 52–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +12.4 141.9 88% 67–100 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +10.5 138.6 86% 61–75 ✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte +6.7 146.8 75% 56–68 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +7.8 134.8 77% 61–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +4.1 151.8 68% 63–82 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +10.5 145.7 82% 70–65 ✗
Cincinnati @ Kansas +10.4 137.7 85% 84–68 ✗
North Carolina @ Syracuse -2.6 149.5 41% 77–64 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +10.1 147.2 85% 79–92 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +8.5 140.3 80% 62–66 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI -8.0 150.3 30% 81–62 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -2.1 141.6 47% 93–72 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana -3.0 135.0 33% 54–67 ✗
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -0.0 152.2 53% 75–79 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +6.2 144.1 78% 74–89 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina +1.4 151.4 55% 89–97 ✓
Xavier @ Butler +5.7 157.9 74% 75–80 ✓
Navy @ Army -9.0 138.0 20% 81–63 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska +17.5 143.5 90% 64–87 ✓
Miami @ Virginia +6.4 143.2 76% 83–86 ✓
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +4.8 152.0 58% 69–65 ✗
Duquesne @ Dayton +5.8 151.6 76% 66–78 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -0.2 131.1 54% 59–63 ✗
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh +0.4 138.0 50% 68–73 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +10.0 150.1 84% 98–101 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +6.2 146.8 74% 64–63 ✗
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +19.4 148.0 91% 59–95 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Chicago State -3.9 138.3 37% 51–70 ✗
Harvard @ Cornell +3.7 152.4 66% 73–54 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +12.2 150.2 85% 70–74 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis -1.9 149.7 46% 65–56 ✓
Long Island University @ Mercyhurst -2.7 134.9 35% 83–91 ✗
Le Moyne @ Stonehill -2.8 133.0 38% 68–77 ✗
Hofstra @ Northeastern -9.9 142.6 18% 82–68 ✓
Samford @ Mercer +3.8 150.3 69% 86–89 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast -2.4 153.2 42% 71–75 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +3.1 141.4 69% 53–80 ✓
Delaware @ Middle Tennessee +7.9 139.2 82% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Louisville +22.3 160.6 91% 70–87 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas Tech +15.1 156.7 89% 72–100 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle -4.2 132.7 32% 46–59 ✗
Arizona @ Houston +1.3 139.4 63% 73–66 ✗
Valparaiso @ UIC +6.3 139.2 78% 71–67 ✗
Washington @ Maryland -5.2 141.0 28% 60–64 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -11.8 146.2 15% 91–66 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +7.7 146.7 79% 83–91 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -4.3 144.5 37% 74–66 ✓
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -10.9 158.5 16% 102–94 ✓
Old Dominion @ Southern Miss +2.1 146.5 66% 81–86 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +10.6 158.7 84% 84–91 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington -2.9 136.0 38% 66–54 ✓
Missouri State @ Florida International +4.0 152.9 71% 67–70 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Colorado +1.9 162.6 58% 69–83 ✓
Texas @ Georgia +3.7 164.7 63% 80–91 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +3.2 155.9 67% 71–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston +10.0 142.7 83% 78–82 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia State -1.1 141.3 47% 80–65 ✓
Missouri @ Arkansas +13.8 162.2 83% 86–94 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +14.1 151.2 88% 75–88 ✓
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +9.2 138.4 87% 71–90 ✓
Arizona State @ Baylor +5.3 158.4 71% 68–73 ✓
Oregon @ USC +7.4 148.1 79% 71–70 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point +9.2 161.5 77% 87–89 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern +3.3 151.6 64% 107–96 ✗
San José State @ Boise State +13.3 146.2 86% 69–84 ✓
Boston College @ SMU +15.6 147.7 87% 70–94 ✓
Maine @ New Hampshire +2.6 134.2 58% 61–58 ✗
Monmouth @ Charleston +5.2 141.7 72% 63–74 ✓
Hampton @ Stony Brook +4.8 135.0 68% 72–79 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell -3.7 144.8 33% 73–68 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro -7.8 148.7 25% 87–75 ✓
Troy @ South Alabama +0.7 148.5 56% 54–65 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock -2.8 139.1 37% 70–65 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech -0.0 147.2 46% 57–72 ✗
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +4.7 137.3 73% 83–87 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty +7.8 146.7 76% 94–73 ✗
Radford @ UNC Asheville +3.4 148.0 65% 73–74 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State -3.4 129.4 31% 65–71 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ SE Louisiana -5.4 132.8 28% 96–75 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +1.6 130.9 59% 53–71 ✓
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -7.9 141.9 32% 81–59 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois +4.0 136.1 55% 70–68 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +0.9 146.5 65% 65–83 ✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State +4.1 139.8 72% 68–82 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU +5.1 133.6 68% 54–60 ✓
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +2.2 146.8 62% 70–83 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo +6.6 143.9 74% 75–94 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Riverside -3.3 147.1 42% 78–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Portland State +5.7 148.3 77% 67–55 ✗
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +0.8 141.4 58% 80–72 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State +4.6 146.7 70% 55–58 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate +1.5 137.4 57% 74–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +11.9 148.3 86% 51–73 ✓
UConn @ Villanova -0.2 140.6 59% 73–63 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +4.0 142.0 67% 76–85 ✓
Alabama @ LSU -6.1 171.4 28% 90–83 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +6.4 135.8 76% 59–57 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego +0.1 149.0 52% 77–65 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond +4.9 146.3 70% 94–99 ✓
Temple @ Wichita State +9.9 142.7 83% 57–69 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +2.3 141.5 63% 73–87 ✓
San Diego State @ Colorado State -3.0 138.7 38% 74–83 ✗
Stanford @ California +4.0 146.3 70% 66–72 ✓
St. Thomas @ Denver -2.7 159.6 35% 80–82 ✗
Buffalo @ Massachusetts +2.9 154.6 66% 86–82 ✗
Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin +15.4 142.5 88% 78–81 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +0.3 140.3 53% 82–73 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho State -2.0 142.8 44% 76–91 ✗
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +5.8 137.1 74% 47–51 ✓
Michigan @ Duke -1.2 146.7 47% 63–68 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +2.2 158.4 64% 82–84 ✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M -1.3 142.5 45% 63–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.