Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–11 on winners spread MAE 10.1 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Norfolk State @ William & Mary +1.7 147.6 64% 73–84 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Indiana State +2.3 143.1 39% 77–72 ✗
Old Dominion @ Radford +12.4 151.4 84% 75–87 ✓
Drexel @ Temple +13.1 145.3 83% 61–69 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ South Florida +12.3 154.4 87% 69–85 ✓
Fairfield @ New Hampshire +5.4 142.2 59% 62–56 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Purdue Fort Wayne +8.8 138.7 80% 69–91 ✓
West Georgia @ Tennessee Tech +15.6 144.5 86% 73–76 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ NJIT -1.4 134.6 32% 68–50 ✓
Lehigh @ Columbia +21.9 152.5 89% 75–76 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Lafayette +4.6 134.2 70% 63–65 ✓
Monmouth @ Northern Illinois +10.3 144.1 84% 66–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Miami (OH) +9.5 149.3 81% 70–88 ✓
American University @ Siena +4.7 133.9 70% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ High Point +18.4 149.6 87% 60–76 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ George Washington +22.0 140.4 90% 80–85 ✓
Binghamton @ Fordham +8.0 140.3 71% 63–78 ✓
Tarleton State @ Florida State +22.0 142.3 91% 52–72 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UCF +1.6 138.9 54% 94–100 ✓
Saint Francis @ Penn State +28.3 150.1 91% 62–92 ✓
UIC @ Northwestern +18.1 141.9 87% 74–83 ✓
Towson @ South Carolina +11.2 137.1 79% 54–80 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia +3.5 157.4 64% 77–90 ✓
Colgate @ Syracuse +7.1 141.7 74% 72–74 ✓
Rider @ Navy +5.5 139.9 69% 90–79 ✗
Delaware @ Iona +14.2 152.5 86% 64–58 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Clemson +14.7 148.6 82% 62–75 ✓
Texas Southern @ Georgia Tech +10.2 152.6 82% 62–81 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State +24.5 149.5 88% 59–80 ✓
Sam Houston @ Baylor -1.7 152.5 48% 67–104 ✗
South Alabama @ Ole Miss +13.7 138.5 84% 54–64 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State +10.3 151.3 80% 63–80 ✓
Cleveland State @ Valparaiso +7.5 144.1 70% 75–67 ✗
UL Monroe @ Rice +9.6 144.2 80% 50–66 ✓
Ohio @ Illinois State +13.6 142.6 86% 75–85 ✓
UTSA @ Bradley — — — 72–85 —
Prairie View A&M @ Incarnate Word +13.5 145.0 85% 81–84 ✓
Chicago State @ Texas +25.4 146.4 90% 58–105 ✓
Belmont @ Lipscomb +12.6 142.7 77% 80–79 ✗
Texas State @ TCU +17.0 134.8 84% 71–76 ✓
Jackson State @ Xavier +15.0 147.6 87% 57–94 ✓
Duke @ Kentucky +1.3 156.4 62% 72–77 ✓
Denver @ Colorado State +18.9 148.2 88% 65–74 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico +4.6 148.4 67% 81–100 ✓
South Dakota @ Iowa +12.0 157.0 83% 77–96 ✓
Queens University @ Utah +15.7 144.2 83% 65–96 ✓
UC Riverside @ California Baptist +5.0 157.6 73% 70–69 ✗
Akron @ Saint Mary's +9.3 149.1 73% 68–87 ✓
Sacramento State @ UC San Diego +14.6 137.8 84% 54–64 ✓
Portland State @ San Diego +2.8 146.3 58% 85–76 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Stanford — — — 64–90 —
Portland @ Oregon +33.6 144.7 91% 70–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Dartmouth +11.1 140.8 78% 87–73 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Massachusetts -0.5 151.8 42% 76–66 ✓
Wagner @ St. John's +25.5 145.9 89% 45–66 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Bellarmine +3.3 144.1 58% 71–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.