Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–42 on winners spread MAE 8.1 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago +1.3 139.1 62% 69–78 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard -5.1 149.9 35% 73–75 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +18.7 150.7 90% 71–72 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -1.2 140.0 40% 56–70 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -4.1 143.2 35% 73–60 ✓
Ohio @ Kent State +5.4 144.2 74% 75–76 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +5.1 131.1 69% 52–65 ✓
Marist @ Siena +1.4 131.9 56% 65–64 ✗
Merrimack @ Manhattan -0.1 137.5 49% 75–79 ✗
Rider @ Iona +4.5 137.1 69% 74–71 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Sacred Heart +0.2 154.0 57% 99–90 ✗
UCLA @ Indiana -1.6 139.8 43% 72–68 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee +5.7 151.1 74% 80–88 ✓
Nevada @ San José State -3.3 139.7 39% 73–58 ✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +7.0 138.3 81% 61–69 ✓
Clemson @ Florida State -2.5 143.5 40% 72–46 ✓
Rice @ Tulane +3.9 137.6 65% 78–81 ✓
Miami @ Pittsburgh +13.9 154.6 87% 65–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts -0.8 137.1 46% 73–59 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +10.2 148.0 84% 68–85 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +1.6 138.9 60% 58–50 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +6.3 130.2 75% 57–58 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +11.8 141.0 88% 76–81 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +5.6 149.1 69% 94–84 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State -1.6 158.5 46% 76–85 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette -0.2 142.0 41% 75–69 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -0.2 135.8 50% 91–93 ✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne +4.4 147.3 76% 75–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +11.0 135.7 85% 67–83 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire -7.1 150.8 30% 79–80 ✗
UMBC @ Bryant +10.2 161.9 85% 79–81 ✓
Army @ Navy +1.5 145.5 60% 54–61 ✓
Houston @ Arizona +1.1 136.8 47% 62–58 ✗
High Point @ Winthrop -1.5 161.0 39% 88–66 ✓
West Virginia @ Baylor +5.7 137.7 81% 71–74 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech +0.1 133.8 37% 73–70 ✗
Boston College @ NC State +8.8 144.1 81% 62–70 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +3.4 139.2 66% 60–72 ✓
Washington @ Penn State +6.2 146.2 70% 75–73 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +1.6 134.1 50% 58–62 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT -2.1 135.9 31% 75–71 ✓
Vermont @ Maine +5.3 127.8 66% 65–61 ✗
Georgetown @ Butler +5.2 139.5 72% 86–97 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina -9.3 130.6 20% 74–73 ✓
App State @ Georgia State -2.5 138.7 42% 65–70 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +2.4 153.7 69% 69–76 ✓
Charleston @ North Carolina A&T -6.2 152.4 26% 69–59 ✓
Drexel @ William & Mary +0.9 145.8 56% 59–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +7.4 135.6 79% 54–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Hampton +0.6 132.5 52% 49–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +5.5 143.7 75% 79–92 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota +4.4 155.2 71% 77–88 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +11.9 149.5 85% 84–89 ✓
Samford @ Wofford -0.4 147.4 50% 76–68 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +9.9 148.4 83% 83–89 ✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo +0.3 150.3 50% 63–59 ✗
Duquesne @ Dayton +9.7 136.8 82% 76–77 ✓
UConn @ Seton Hall -14.1 131.8 15% 68–69 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -6.7 149.5 32% 70–78 ✗
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -0.5 133.9 48% 67–72 ✗
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -9.3 149.9 22% 93–55 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -4.5 156.9 30% 96–87 ✓
UCF @ Colorado +1.2 147.9 60% 63–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -3.0 142.1 35% 74–81 ✗
Grand Canyon @ UT Arlington -4.6 152.0 31% 82–75 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood +2.5 136.2 63% 78–81 ✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M -5.3 133.0 30% 65–55 ✓
Missouri @ Georgia +0.8 144.9 52% 87–74 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill +4.0 132.5 64% 73–85 ✓
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +5.3 142.0 77% 73–76 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan -2.4 155.6 43% 73–80 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston -0.0 147.6 50% 76–78 ✗
Stony Brook @ Northeastern +10.0 142.7 85% 60–71 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama +1.4 176.6 40% 94–85 ✗
Stanford @ Duke +18.9 141.5 90% 70–106 ✓
Cincinnati @ Iowa State +10.0 139.4 85% 70–81 ✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte -1.1 144.8 44% 75–59 ✓
California @ Georgia Tech +4.0 143.1 71% 88–90 ✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island +7.8 149.8 80% 71–86 ✓
George Washington @ Davidson +3.1 137.0 65% 74–67 ✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -13.7 140.5 13% 75–63 ✓
Howard @ Delaware State +2.4 154.4 65% 69–90 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +10.0 136.3 83% 53–88 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +4.7 134.6 70% 51–72 ✓
Minnesota @ USC +7.5 142.9 78% 69–66 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State -4.3 135.8 27% 65–61 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +4.7 147.1 74% 75–78 ✓
Texas State @ South Alabama +5.8 141.1 77% 65–70 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +7.2 141.5 75% 54–91 ✓
Campbell @ Delaware -1.3 146.4 38% 96–91 ✓
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky +4.8 155.9 75% 80–86 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +0.7 136.8 54% 70–68 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +8.1 154.9 82% 72–75 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State +2.1 128.7 56% 70–68 ✗
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +11.4 143.0 88% 59–71 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.1 141.8 70% 55–69 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana +2.3 141.1 62% 81–84 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +4.2 149.5 68% 80–71 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +4.5 143.0 67% 72–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -1.5 133.9 38% 72–68 ✓
Morgan State @ South Carolina State +11.7 155.7 86% 62–90 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +6.9 142.4 78% 69–83 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -1.4 156.2 49% 49–88 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -0.5 150.0 46% 71–82 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +9.9 142.3 83% 68–82 ✓
Stetson @ Austin Peay +10.2 146.6 86% 63–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling -0.0 134.4 47% 67–60 ✓
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman +4.7 134.3 53% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley +3.5 143.0 63% 52–76 ✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas -5.0 157.4 37% 83–84 ✗
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss +5.6 150.1 71% 81–71 ✗
Presbyterian @ Longwood +6.3 144.9 77% 77–68 ✗
UTSA @ Tulsa -0.1 143.2 48% 76–80 ✗
North Carolina @ Syracuse -5.3 158.4 31% 88–82 ✓
Wake Forest @ SMU +7.5 142.8 79% 77–66 ✗
Fordham @ Richmond -0.5 147.2 49% 66–70 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Southern +12.3 148.3 86% 60–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Florida A&M +0.2 144.9 41% 71–76 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Brown +6.5 142.9 78% 72–82 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +0.9 148.0 58% 75–87 ✓
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans -13.1 142.0 15% 78–64 ✓
Villanova @ Providence -1.1 141.3 46% 62–75 ✗
LSU @ Oklahoma +6.5 147.8 73% 82–79 ✗
Pacific @ Oregon State +15.2 142.3 87% 65–79 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -8.6 149.0 17% 75–63 ✓
West Georgia @ Bellarmine +0.3 152.8 44% 81–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.