I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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69–21 on winners spread MAE 10.9 91 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana State @ Duke +28.1 145.7 91% 62–100 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Kentucky +24.0 140.9 90% 53–99 ✓
Louisiana @ McNeese +11.5 131.5 81% 62–88 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Jacksonville State — — — 67–74 —
Norfolk State @ Towson +7.6 127.9 72% 41–51 ✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston +9.1 143.5 79% 61–88 ✓
The Citadel @ West Georgia +10.1 141.1 63% 92–100 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairfield +15.8 136.7 85% 71–73 ✓
Fordham @ Iona +20.5 141.7 89% 71–76 ✓
Furman @ Northern Iowa +20.5 131.4 87% 54–70 ✓
UAlbany @ Rhode Island +20.5 135.9 89% 61–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Bucknell +5.5 136.3 72% 83–77 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Drake +2.8 132.7 62% 61–59 ✗
High Point @ UAB +1.3 150.9 61% 74–91 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Ole Miss +17.3 140.8 86% 60–82 ✓
Illinois State @ USC +7.5 142.6 80% 67–87 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Tulane +6.9 142.6 78% 85–63 ✗
Milwaukee @ Texas Tech +24.4 158.4 90% 63–80 ✓
Samford @ Arkansas +21.2 153.2 89% 75–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Creighton +8.9 135.5 78% 45–84 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Rice +8.1 141.3 81% 64–71 ✓
UCF @ Texas A&M +9.6 158.5 80% 86–74 ✗
Xavier @ Iowa +24.4 143.6 89% 62–81 ✓
Hampton @ Brown +3.3 145.4 59% 72–63 ✗
Northwestern @ DePaul -7.8 128.3 19% 81–79 ✓
Michigan @ TCU +1.9 158.9 46% 67–63 ✗
Colgate @ Illinois +28.4 153.9 91% 65–84 ✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina +27.3 151.6 91% 53–97 ✓
Cal Poly @ Montana +6.1 150.2 74% 82–90 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Georgia +26.0 141.7 90% 87–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ UC Davis +14.7 144.6 83% 73–77 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +24.2 142.6 88% 66–76 ✓
Providence @ Colorado +3.5 163.8 68% 88–97 ✓
Tarleton State @ Baylor +19.9 152.8 88% 81–94 ✓
Utah Tech @ Mississippi Valley State -12.9 143.8 12% 81–75 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA -6.1 145.3 27% 69–65 ✓
North Texas @ Saint Mary's +8.8 132.8 78% 49–80 ✓
Troy @ Loyola Marymount +8.4 137.6 74% 63–74 ✓
Western Illinois @ California Baptist +13.7 140.7 85% 59–69 ✓
Gonzaga @ Arizona State -3.0 136.8 37% 77–65 ✓
Washington @ Washington State -6.1 146.4 32% 81–69 ✓
Manhattan @ Hawai'i +16.7 149.7 88% 56–86 ✓
South Alabama @ Coppin State -12.3 132.6 15% 72–62 ✓
Ohio @ Louisville +30.9 155.1 91% 81–106 ✓
Marshall @ Virginia +6.7 142.4 74% 78–104 ✓
Clemson @ Georgetown +1.1 136.6 43% 74–79 ✓
Kansas City @ Texas +30.9 150.3 91% 55–71 ✓
Delaware State @ New Haven -1.3 129.9 39% 52–65 ✗
Vermont @ Northeastern +9.6 143.7 79% 85–74 ✗
Merrimack @ Boston University +14.3 141.0 87% 91–79 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Toledo +8.6 152.1 79% 83–90 ✓
Jacksonville @ VMI +4.0 146.3 63% 69–67 ✗
Chattanooga @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.9 153.3 70% 73–91 ✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State -4.7 163.6 32% 102–95 ✓
Penn State @ La Salle -10.9 143.6 20% 83–69 ✓
Stony Brook @ Yale +30.2 151.4 90% 79–86 ✓
Princeton @ Kansas +24.5 144.9 90% 57–76 ✓
Austin Peay @ UNC Greensboro -6.7 137.5 25% 69–63 ✓
UTSA @ Denver +17.2 147.2 87% 84–79 ✗
New Hampshire @ George Mason +22.5 144.2 90% 44–61 ✓
Mercer @ Winthrop +7.4 150.4 77% 69–105 ✓
Wofford @ Bellarmine +5.1 137.8 53% 94–86 ✗
Maryland @ Marquette +12.8 142.6 84% 89–82 ✗
UIC @ Chicago State -2.8 153.9 40% 67–63 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Air Force -4.9 144.2 38% 76–61 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Stonehill +2.4 129.9 55% 74–63 ✗
Butler @ SMU +2.3 149.6 60% 85–87 ✓
Boston College @ Temple +13.5 137.9 82% 76–71 ✗
Harvard @ Army +4.7 153.1 56% 75–52 ✗
St. Thomas @ Southeast Missouri State +12.2 144.7 83% 84–72 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Vanderbilt +34.9 160.7 91% 75–104 ✓
East Tennessee State @ North Alabama +2.2 141.5 61% 78–74 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Queens University +8.4 150.2 78% 64–81 ✓
Binghamton @ Longwood +8.5 140.0 76% 82–90 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State +12.2 141.5 85% 68–75 ✓
Wright State @ Radford +3.4 142.6 57% 92–59 ✗
Drexel @ Syracuse +15.0 134.2 84% 50–80 ✓
UTEP @ Utah State +17.1 138.9 87% 51–75 ✓
Montana State @ Boise State +17.8 142.8 86% 58–62 ✓
Idaho @ UC San Diego +12.6 145.6 82% 67–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ St. Bonaventure +10.8 145.3 80% 80–84 ✓
Morgan State @ Mercyhurst +10.4 130.6 79% 72–86 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT +10.6 138.3 82% 81–93 ✓
Texas Southern @ Texas State +13.8 146.8 89% 67–77 ✓
North Dakota @ UC Riverside +13.9 145.4 85% 76–74 ✗
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +3.5 147.8 62% 85–73 ✗
Nicholls @ Murray State +17.1 144.3 87% 79–99 ✓
William & Mary @ St. John's +5.8 163.6 71% 60–93 ✓
Bowling Green @ Davidson +7.2 128.4 58% 87–91 ✓
Missouri State @ UT Arlington +6.2 138.1 67% 49–67 ✓
Old Dominion @ George Washington +25.7 142.5 89% 73–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.