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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–11 on winners spread MAE 8.7 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
BYU @ UConn +0.4 142.6 49% 84–86 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana Tech +8.8 135.3 70% 51–68 ✓
Oklahoma @ Nebraska +1.4 141.4 52% 99–105 ✓
Nevada @ Santa Clara +13.8 144.4 83% 83–98 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Wilmington +2.9 141.9 66% 60–73 ✓
Little Rock @ Ball State +14.1 140.1 88% 68–62 ✗
James Madison @ Long Island University +9.1 148.3 78% 79–88 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Dayton +18.6 147.1 87% 82–91 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Elon +13.4 156.5 86% 84–95 ✓
Southern Utah @ Omaha +13.8 146.3 86% 85–90 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Saint Louis +15.7 157.0 85% 64–78 ✓
Duquesne @ Villanova +13.7 153.0 85% 77–87 ✓
Belmont @ Oral Roberts +4.4 153.7 70% 83–60 ✗
Green Bay @ Minnesota +25.7 140.9 90% 65–72 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Pepperdine — — — 88–81 —
Portland @ Wyoming +12.2 144.4 79% 56–93 ✓
New Mexico @ New Mexico State — — — 68–76 —
Sam Houston @ Utah +11.4 156.0 83% 79–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Manhattan +9.2 149.7 86% 73–80 ✓
Utah Valley @ Fresno State +9.1 148.1 81% 74–75 ✓
Weber State @ UC Irvine +0.6 139.0 58% 70–79 ✓
Bradley @ San Francisco +5.4 135.4 67% 64–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Seattle U +11.2 139.1 78% 74–83 ✓
Utah Tech @ Hawai'i +20.9 144.3 88% 62–68 ✓
App State @ Dartmouth +0.1 133.9 48% 85–77 ✗
Wagner @ UMBC +11.8 144.2 82% 70–71 ✓
Wright State @ Kent State -2.3 154.4 38% 72–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Ohio State +5.6 150.9 62% 63–64 ✓
Stetson @ Western Carolina +7.0 147.6 59% 65–76 ✓
Bryant @ Valparaiso +4.9 141.1 68% 50–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Hampton +4.0 143.8 71% 67–61 ✗
South Florida @ Kennesaw State +5.6 155.3 69% 108–89 ✗
Samford @ Central Arkansas -2.6 148.1 29% 84–77 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Maine +8.6 126.8 82% 70–64 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Fairfield +10.6 133.3 79% 82–85 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Wake Forest +23.7 149.0 91% 75–109 ✓
Charlotte @ Virginia Tech +15.5 147.7 86% 76–84 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Oklahoma State +21.7 136.6 88% 69–85 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts +10.3 134.2 82% 77–84 ✓
Western Michigan @ South Dakota +2.3 152.6 62% 78–83 ✓
Radford @ Cleveland State -1.5 155.0 49% 82–87 ✗
Houston @ Auburn +0.9 134.4 58% 73–72 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky +15.9 151.7 84% 82–95 ✓
Presbyterian @ Sacramento State +6.9 137.2 74% 62–64 ✓
Lindenwood @ Alabama A&M +5.4 142.1 64% 65–74 ✓
Colorado State @ Loyola Chicago -9.5 156.8 23% 80–67 ✓
Harvard @ Marist +14.2 132.6 84% 56–54 ✗
UNLV @ Memphis +8.5 154.5 77% 92–78 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Indiana +37.3 151.5 91% 61–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Cincinnati +17.6 136.2 87% 55–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.